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Google Has Fallen Behind

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Sep 28, 2026

Summary

Joseph provides a comprehensive update on a $1.5 million portfolio that has historically delivered market-beating performance. While the portfolio faces a minor decline year-to-date, Joseph maintains confidence in the underlying business fundamentals of key holdings. Joseph highlights that current valuations for many tech giants are reasonable rather than speculative, and argues against the "zero-sum" narrative surrounding AI, characterizing it instead as an engineering challenge that will ultimately expand productivity.

**Google (Alphabet):** Joseph identifies concerns regarding Google's current AI model performance relative to competitors like OpenAI's ChatGPT. However, Joseph maintains a hold position, citing Google's robust revenue growth in cloud services and YouTube, and suggests that the company is not currently overvalued at a 25 forward PE. Joseph plans to trim the position only if the valuation reaches a 30 PE ratio.
**Meta:** Joseph believes Meta is currently undervalued despite a significant recent price run-up. Joseph views the acquisition of the MongoDB CEO and the move into enterprise AI as a strategic positive that will open new revenue streams, dismissing recent price drops as a market misunderstanding of Meta's growth potential.
**S&P Global:** Joseph designates this as a "buy" candidate, rejecting fears of a "SAS apocalypse" as short-sighted. Joseph points to the company's strong economics and the growing assets under management linked to their indices as indicators of long-term stability at a 21 forward PE.
**Texas Roadhouse:** Joseph identifies this as a "buy" opportunity following a 21% sell-off caused by temporary commodity inflation. Joseph explains that the company is playing the "long game" by not aggressively raising prices to protect customer trust, expecting net income to surge once beef prices normalize.
**Uber & DoorDash:** Joseph holds both as long-term winners, arguing that concerns regarding autonomous vehicles are already priced into the stock. Joseph favors Uber’s hybrid model (human drivers plus autonomous capabilities) as a major competitive advantage.

Mentioned Stocks

META
Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Joseph believes the market's reaction to Meta's recent moves is misguided, viewing their expansion into enterprise AI as a significant growth catalyst. Joseph considers the current valuation attractive.

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TXRH
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph recommends Texas Roadhouse as a buy, citing strong fundamentals despite a temporary earnings dip caused by commodity inflation. Joseph believes the market is overreacting to short-term cost pressures.

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GOOG
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Joseph remains patient due to Google's strong cloud and YouTube growth, despite acknowledging they have fallen behind in the AI model race. Joseph notes a 25 forward PE is healthy and plans to hold unless it reaches a 30 PE ratio.

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SPGI
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph explicitly recommends S&P Global, arguing that the recent sell-off is based on short-sighted fears. Joseph highlights the company's strong economics and growing index-linked assets at a 21 forward PE.

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