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Interesting News for Starbucks Stock Investors | SBUX Stock Analysis | BROS Stock

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Sep 27, 2026

Summary

Parkev argues that Starbucks is currently experiencing 'diseconomies of scale,' where the company's massive size has led to significant operational inefficiencies. Parkev highlights that costs, particularly labor and frontline wages, are rising faster than revenue, leading to a sharp decline in operating margins from 18% in 2017 to just 10% today. Parkev notes that the company's return on invested capital has also plummeted to 11.5%, which barely exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, indicating that new investments are not yielding sufficient returns.

Parkev believes that the decision to close 250 stores in the U.S. and Canada is a necessary step taken by the new CEO, Brian Niccol, to prune unprofitable parts of the business. However, Parkev warns that more closures are likely required to stabilize the company's financials. Parkev also mentions that while Niccol is a highly capable leader, the market has already priced in much of the expected turnaround, making the stock's current valuation unattractive at a forward P/E of 30.

Starbucks (SBUX): Parkev maintains a HOLD rating on Starbucks, citing a disconnect between the current market price and the company's intrinsic value. Parkev used a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to determine a fair value of $66 per share, which is significantly lower than the current trading price of $93. Parkev states that while Starbucks is an incredible brand, Parkev would require a much lower price before upgrading the stock to a buy.
Dutch Bros (BROS): Parkev expresses an optimistic outlook for Dutch Bros, identifying the company as a primary beneficiary of Starbucks' strategic retreat. Parkev argues that as Starbucks closes locations and yields market share to improve profitability, Dutch Bros is well-positioned to expand and capture those customers. Parkev suggests that Dutch Bros could emerge as a powerful long-term competitor if Starbucks gives up too much ground during its downsizing process.

Mentioned Stocks

SBUX
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev maintains a HOLD rating because the current market price of $93 is significantly higher than Parkev's calculated fair value of $66. Parkev notes that while the new CEO is capable, the stock is expensive at a forward P/E of 30, and the company faces structural issues like declining operating margins and high labor costs.

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BROS
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev is optimistic about Dutch Bros because Parkev believes the company can expand its market share as Starbucks closes underperforming locations. Parkev views Dutch Bros as an up-and-coming competitor that stands to benefit from Starbucks' current need to downsize and improve efficiency.

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