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Should Investors Buy Costco Stock Instead of Walmart Stock? | COST Stock Analysis WMT Stock Analysis

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Sep 26, 2026

Summary

Parkev provides a comparative analysis of Costco and Walmart, focusing on their business models, scale, and efficiency. Parkev notes that while Walmart generates over $700 billion in revenue—more than double that of Costco—Costco achieves nearly half of Walmart's revenue with less than one-tenth of the physical locations. Parkev interprets this as a significant expansion opportunity for Costco. Parkev also observes that while Walmart is the clear leader in e-commerce, Costco's online sales are growing at nearly double the rate of its total revenue.

Financial performance for both companies is characterized by thin margins, with Parkev highlighting that both earn only about $4 in operating profit for every $100 in sales. Parkev emphasizes inventory turnover as the most critical metric for these retailers, where Costco significantly outperforms Walmart with a ratio of 15.25 versus 12.0. Parkev concludes by applying valuation models to both stocks to determine which offers better value for investors.

Costco (COST): Parkev identifies Costco as an elite retailer that demonstrates exceptional efficiency through its high inventory turnover rate of 15.25. Parkev mentions that while the stock trades at a premium forward P/E of 36.3, a discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $843. Since the current market price is approximately $900, Parkev considers Costco to be much closer to fair value than its competitor.
Walmart (WMT): Parkev highlights Walmart's massive scale and its successful e-commerce strategy, which has allowed it to gain market share even against Amazon. Despite these strengths, Parkev points out that the stock is currently trading at a forward P/E of 34, which is high for a brick-and-mortar retailer. Based on Parkev's calculations, the fair value of Walmart is only $70, making the current market price of $110 appear significantly overvalued.

Mentioned Stocks

WMT
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Parkev considers Walmart to be significantly overvalued at its current market price of $110. Through his DCF calculation, Parkev determined a fair value of only $70 per share. While acknowledging Walmart's strength in e-commerce, Parkev suggests that the current premium valuation is not justified compared to Costco.

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COST
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev prefers Costco over Walmart because it is more fairly valued according to his DCF analysis, which estimates a fair value of $843 compared to a market price of $900. Additionally, Parkev highlights Costco's superior inventory turnover (15.25) and the massive potential for store expansion given its relatively small physical footprint compared to its high revenue efficiency.

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