🚨 Stock Market is Set to Do the UNTHINKABLE

Investing Simplified - Professor G•Sep 26, 2026

Summary

Nolan argues that market volatility is the necessary price for long-term wealth accumulation. Nolan notes that even when the S&P 500 is at all-time highs, historical data since 1970 shows average returns of 9.6% in the following year. Nolan highlights that despite headwinds like 10-year Treasury yields reaching 5.2% and oil prices exceeding $100, the market remains supported by intense AI optimism. Nolan emphasizes that for long-term investors, periods of market fear are often the best times to accumulate assets through dollar-cost averaging.

Nolan provides a breakdown of two major ETF rebalancings:

SPMO (S&P 500 Momentum Fund): Nolan explains that the fund recently removed Nvidia and Broadcom, significantly increasing its position in Apple to the number two spot. Nolan states that Apple’s lower capital expenditure on AI compared to other 'Mag 7' companies is currently boosting its short-term earnings, contributing to its 30% year-to-date gain.

SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF): Nolan discusses how the fund increased its technology exposure from 8% to 12%, primarily by making Qualcomm its top holding. Nolan views this as a positive move because companies like Qualcomm and Texas Instruments are 'cash cows' that provide reliable dividends rather than high-risk speculative growth.

S&P 500 / Macro Outlook: Nolan observes that the economy is currently strong, which paradoxically forces the Fed to consider more rate hikes (potentially 0.25% or 0.50%). Nolan argues that while this pressures growth stocks in the short term, the long-term upward trajectory of the market remains intact, especially if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East subside.

Mentioned Stocks

QCOM

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Nolan highlights Qualcomm as the new top holding in SCHD. Nolan refers to the company as a 'cash cow' that helps increase the overall dividend and value of the fund.

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AAPL

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Nolan notes that Apple has gained over 30% this year. Nolan argues that because Apple is spending less on AI infrastructure than its peers, its short-term profit margins are higher, making it an attractive momentum play within the SPMO ETF.

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SCHD

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan views the recent price dip in SCHD as a great opportunity for long-term investors to buy more. Nolan is not worried about the increased tech exposure to 12%, as the new additions like Qualcomm and Texas Instruments are stable dividend-paying companies. He continues to buy every month.

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TXN

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Nolan identifies Texas Instruments as a key new addition to the SCHD top holdings. Nolan appreciates that it provides steady dividends and technological exposure without the extreme volatility of high-growth AI stocks.

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SPMO

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan maintains SPMO as a core part of his portfolio and uses a monthly dollar-cost averaging plan. Nolan is satisfied with the recent rebalancing, which shifted weight toward Apple and semiconductors like Micron and AMD to capture current momentum.

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