Why I Sold This Underperforming Growth Stock
Summary
Parkev provides a critical update on his investment in The Trade Desk, noting that the stock has lost nearly 90% of its value from its all-time highs. The primary driver for this decline is the aggressive entry of Amazon into the digital advertising space; while Trade Desk charges fees of 15% to 20%, Amazon is offering similar services for 1% to 5%. This competitive pressure has led to a dramatic deceleration in revenue growth, which fell from double digits to just 3% in the most recent quarter.
Parkev highlights that Wall Street estimates and management forecasts are increasingly pessimistic, with revenue expected to decline by 12% and 18% in the coming quarters. Although Parkev calculates a current fair value of $22 per share, he emphasizes that he has been repeatedly revising this number downward as new data consistently misses expectations. He contrasts this 'downward surprise' trend with AI stocks like Nvidia and Micron, where performance consistently exceeds his estimates. Consequently, Parkev has downgraded his conviction to 'low' and is considering selling his remaining two-thirds position.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Parkev sold 1/3 of his position for tax loss harvesting after the stock fell nearly 90% from its highs. Parkev cites intense competition from Amazon and a collapse in revenue growth (from 11.8% to 3%) as key reasons for his bearish outlook. He has downgraded his conviction to a low level and notes that revenue is expected to decline by 12% to 18% in the coming quarters. While he estimates a fair value of $22, he keeps revising it lower as data consistently misses expectations.