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Best 3 ETF Portfolio Buy & Hold FOREVER (BEST Simple Investing)

Summary

Nolan presents an updated version of his popular three-fund portfolio, designed for 2026 and 2027, which he considers the most effective and simple investment strategy available. He asserts that the traditional three-fund approach, especially as reflected in many 401ks, is outdated due to significant market changes since its inception.

Nolan critically evaluates the traditional components:

**Bonds:** Nolan argues that bonds, exemplified by BND, are no longer a reliable safety hedge. He points out that BND dropped 13% in 2022, a year when stocks also fell, contrary to their supposed role. Furthermore, BND is still 20% below its August 2020 high of $89.59. Its 10-year average return is a mere 1.4% per year, which significantly lags behind the current inflation rate of 3.4%, effectively leading to a loss of purchasing power. While acknowledging bonds' low beta (around 0.25), Nolan dismisses their 'calm' nature as 'calm while going nowhere.' He makes a rare exception for extremely conservative retirees who might opt for a small bond allocation (20%) as an additional defense layer.
**International Stocks:** Nolan contends that dedicated international ETFs, such as VXUS, consistently underperform the US market over the long term. He cites VXUS's 10-year average return of 9.7% per year, which is substantially lower than the S&P 500's 15.4% per year over the same period, despite VXUS having a strong year in 2025 with a 32% return. Nolan explains that the rationale for geographical diversification is less relevant today, as major US companies in the S&P 500 already derive about 40% of their revenue internationally, providing ample global exposure. He concludes that for investors seeking higher returns, there are better places to allocate the risk capital.

Nolan's updated three-fund portfolio consists of the following components:

**Foundational Broad US Index ETF (e.g., VU, SPY, SPYM, VTI):** This forms the core of the portfolio, tracking either the S&P 500 or the total US stock market. Nolan highlights these ETFs for their extremely low expense ratios (around 0.03%) and the S&P 500's robust historical performance, averaging about 15% per year over the last decade. This segment is designed for consistent market-average growth.
**Safety Section – Dividend/Value ETF (e.g., SCHD, VTV):** This component replaces bonds and is chosen for its lower volatility (beta significantly below 1) and ability to generate cash flow while still growing capital. Nolan highly recommends SCHD for its beta of approximately 0.69 (swinging 30% less than the S&P 500) and its impressive 10-year average return of about 13% per year. SCHD also provides a dividend yield of over 3% that has grown for 14 consecutive years, and it showed resilience in 2022, only dropping about 3%. For high-income individuals investing in taxable accounts, Nolan suggests VTV as an alternative due to its lower dividend yield, which incurs less tax burden while still providing value and low volatility.
**Growth ETF (e.g., SCHG, QQQM, VUG, SPMO):** This section is designed for higher reward, accepting slightly higher risk. Nolan emphasizes broad-based growth ETFs that cover multiple industries rather than single-sector funds (like VGT or SMH, which he suggests for smaller, satellite allocations). SCHG is presented as a prime example, boasting a 10-year average return of about 18.7% per year, nearly double that of international funds. Nolan illustrates the significant wealth difference this choice can make, with $500 monthly investments for 30 years potentially yielding $8.36 million with SCHG versus $1.6 million with VXUS.

Nolan then provides specific portfolio allocations based on life stage:

**Retirement Age:** 50% Dividend/Value ETF, 40% Foundational ETF, 10% Growth ETF. Crucially, a minimum of three years' living expenses should be held in a high-yield savings account. A more conservative option includes 20% in bonds.
**5 Years Away from Retirement:** 40% Dividend ETF, 40% Foundational ETF, 20% Growth ETF. Aim to build a cash reserve of at least one year's living expenses, working towards three years.
**10 Years Away from Retirement (50-60 years old):** 40% Dividend ETF, 30% Foundational ETF, 30% Growth ETF. Keep one year's living expenses in cash. Nolan stresses initiating serious retirement and tax planning, including Roth conversions.
**20 Years Away from Retirement (40-45 years old):** 30% Dividend/Value ETF (VTV preferred in taxable accounts), 35% Foundational ETF, 35% Growth ETF. Maintain at least six months of living expenses in an emergency fund.
**25-45 Years Old:** 30% Dividend ETF, 30% Foundational ETF, 30% Growth ETF, with up to 10-20% allocated to individual stocks or crypto for higher risk/reward, provided it remains a small, disciplined portion.
**Starting Out (18-80 years old):** For simplicity, Nolan suggests an initial 33% allocation to each of the three core ETFs (Foundational, Dividend/Value, Growth) for the bulk of the portfolio, allowing investors to gain experience before adjusting allocations based on personal circumstances.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan suggests individual companies like Nvidia can be part of a small, discretionary 10-20% allocation for younger investors (20-24 years old) who want to engage in riskier bets with higher upside. He emphasizes keeping this slice small and disciplined to avoid significant losses, advocating for 80-90% of the portfolio to remain in the three core ETFs.

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AAPL
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan suggests individual companies like Apple can be part of a small, discretionary 10-20% allocation for younger investors (20-24 years old) who want to engage in riskier bets with higher upside. He emphasizes keeping this slice small and disciplined to avoid significant losses, advocating for 80-90% of the portfolio to remain in the three core ETFs. He also notes Apple as an example of a global company providing international exposure without a dedicated international fund.

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SPY
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan lists SPY as a foundational broad US index ETF that tracks the S&P 500, alongside VU and VTI. He notes its extremely low expense ratio (0.03%) and highlights the S&P 500's strong performance, averaging about 15% per year over the last 10 years. It forms the core stable component of his updated three-fund portfolio.

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BTC
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan suggests crypto like Bitcoin can be part of a small, discretionary 10-20% allocation for younger investors (20-24 years old) who want to engage in riskier bets with higher upside. He emphasizes keeping this slice small and disciplined to avoid significant losses, advocating for 80-90% of the portfolio to remain in the three core ETFs.

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VGT
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan mentions VGT as an example of a "pure technology fund" which could fit as a "small satellite" to the core portfolio, but not as the entire growth portion due to its single-sector focus and higher risk. He distinguishes it from broad-based growth ETFs that are preferred for the core portfolio.

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SMH
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan mentions SMH as an example of a "semiconductor fund" which could fit as a "small satellite" to the core portfolio, but not as the entire growth portion due to its single-sector focus and higher risk. He distinguishes it from broad-based growth ETFs that are preferred for the core portfolio.

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VTI
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan identifies VTI as a foundational broad US index ETF that tracks the total US stock market. He notes its extremely low expense ratio (0.03%) and highlights the S&P 500's strong performance, averaging about 15% per year over the last 10 years. It forms the core stable component of his updated three-fund portfolio.

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SCHD
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan considers SCHD the "best" dividend fund for the safety section. It has a beta of ~0.69, meaning it swings about 30% less than the S&P 500. It returned 61% total over the past 5 years and about 13% annually over the past decade. It pays a dividend (currently over 3%) that has grown for 14 consecutive years. Its expense ratio is 0.06%. In 2022, when stocks dropped 18% and bonds dropped 13%, SCHD was only down about 3%, proving its role as a stable, cash-flow generating asset.

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ETH
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Nolan suggests crypto like Ethereum can be part of a small, discretionary 10-20% allocation for younger investors (20-24 years old) who want to engage in riskier bets with higher upside. He emphasizes keeping this slice small and disciplined to avoid significant losses, advocating for 80-90% of the portfolio to remain in the three core ETFs.

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BND
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Nolan criticizes BND, stating it "dropped like a rock" in 2022 (-13%) when it was supposed to be a hedge. It's still 20% below its August 2020 all-time high of $89.59. Its 10-year average return is 1.4% per year, which is below the current inflation rate of 3.4%, meaning it's "losing money slowly." While acknowledging its low beta (around 0.25), Nolan dismisses its 'calm' nature as 'calm while going nowhere.' He only allows it for "extra conservative" retirees as a small defense slice.

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QQQM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan lists QQQM as a suitable broad-based growth ETF for the higher reward section of the portfolio. He states these ETFs hold a wide range of growth companies across different industries, making them less risky than single-sector funds, while aiming for higher returns.

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SCHG
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan identifies SCHG as a preferred broad-based growth ETF for the higher reward, slightly higher risk section of the portfolio. He highlights its strong performance, averaging about 18.7% per year over the past 10 years, almost double the 9.7% of international ETFs like VXUS. He uses a dollar amount example ($500/month for 30 years) to show how SCHG's performance could lead to $8.36 million versus VXUS's $1.6 million, emphasizing the "beauty of my updated three fund portfolio."

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SPMO
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan lists SPMO as a suitable broad-based growth ETF for the higher reward section of the portfolio. He states these ETFs hold a wide range of growth companies across different industries, making them less risky than single-sector funds, while aiming for higher returns. Nolan explicitly says, "I love that fund" and "I also like SPMO in here, too."

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VXUS
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Nolan states that VXUS, despite a strong 2025 (32% return), has lagged for a decade. Over the past 10 years, it averaged 9.7% per year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's 15.4% per year. He argues that modern global companies (like Apple) within US indexes already provide international exposure, making a dedicated international fund redundant and less rewarding for the risk taken. He mentions that business practices have changed since the 70s/80s, making geographical diversification less relevant.

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VTV
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Nolan recommends VTV as an alternative for those wanting less dividends but still high value and low volatility. He personally "stopped adding too much to SCHD within the taxable brokerage" and "been adding VTV" instead because it's a value ETF with a very low beta and has about half the dividend as SCHD, resulting in less tax burden for high-income earners in taxable accounts.

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VU
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan identifies VU as a foundational broad US index ETF that tracks the S&P 500. He notes its extremely low expense ratio (0.03%) and highlights the S&P 500's strong performance, averaging about 15% per year over the last 10 years. It forms the core stable component of his updated three-fund portfolio.

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SPYM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan lists SPYM as a foundational broad US index ETF that tracks the S&P 500, alongside VU and VTI. He notes its extremely low expense ratio (0.03%) and highlights the S&P 500's strong performance, averaging about 15% per year over the last 10 years. It forms the core stable component of his updated three-fund portfolio.

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VUG
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan lists VUG as a suitable broad-based growth ETF for the higher reward section of the portfolio. He states these ETFs hold a wide range of growth companies across different industries, making them less risky than single-sector funds, while aiming for higher returns.

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