T
TubeFolio
Back to Dashboard

International Paper Stock: Buy or Sell in September?

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Sep 17, 2026

Summary

Parkev analyzes International Paper's current financial struggles, noting that management has tripled its estimate for macroeconomic headwinds to $150 million. These challenges include rising transportation costs, higher corrugated container costs, and increased employee health expenses. Despite these pressures, Parkev highlights management's plan to raise prices and Parkev notes Parkev's own expectation for stronger profitability in the second half of the year based on management forecasts.

Parkev observes that International Paper's historical performance has been volatile, with operating margins and returns on invested capital trending downward. Parkev points out that the operating profit margin was a mere 0.9% recently, and returns on invested capital were negative. Parkev also notes that while the forward P/E of 11.4 is lower than the S&P 500 average, Parkev would personally prefer a valuation in the mid-single digits given the business's current state.

International Paper (IP): Parkev calculates a fair value of $43 per share using a discounted cash flow model, which implies a 26% upside from the $34 market price. Parkev classifies the stock as a low-conviction buy due to rising costs and the need for management to prove they can turn the business around. Parkev is waiting for at least one quarter of improved performance and more evidence of better profitability before gaining stronger conviction in this ranking.

Mentioned Stocks

IP
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev identifies a 26% upside based on a fair value calculation of $43 compared to a current market price of $34. Parkev notes significant headwinds like $150 million in increased costs and declining operating margins of only 0.9%, resulting in a low-conviction buy rating. Parkev mentions that a forward P/E of 11.4 is high for this situation and would prefer mid-single digits, but Parkev acknowledges the potential for a $1.3 billion free cash flow recovery by 2027.

Loading chart...