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SpaceX + Tesla: The Most Dangerous Merger in History

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Sep 17, 2026

Summary

Parkev argues that a merger between Tesla and SpaceX is highly probable because it would streamline operations and reduce administrative burdens for Elon Musk. Parkev points out that Musk's higher ownership stake in SpaceX provides a strong personal incentive for SpaceX to be the acquiring entity. Parkev asserts that this move would allow for consolidated leadership focus, potentially strengthening the competitive advantage of the combined business.

Tesla (TSLA): Parkev evaluates Tesla's current market price of $356 and finds it significantly overvalued compared to a calculated fair value of $121. Parkev notes that while the long-term potential for driverless car technology is massive, the company will likely face negative cash flow through 2028 due to heavy R&D investments. Parkev highlights that the stock currently trades at a forward P/E of 165, which Parkev describes as an extreme valuation that poses a significant headwind for any immediate acquisition.

Price predictions and entry points: Parkev estimates a fair value of $121 per share for Tesla. Parkev also suggests that if the stock price declines toward $200, it could serve as an accelerant for an acquisition by SpaceX.

Mentioned Stocks

TSLA
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Parkev believes Tesla is 'ridiculously expensive' and 'extremely overvalued' at the current price of $356. Parkev calculates a fair value of $121 based on discounted cash flow analysis. Parkev notes that for the current price to make sense, an investor would have to assume triple the growth Parkev currently estimates. Parkev suggests that a stock price crash toward $200 might be the catalyst for an acquisition by SpaceX.

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