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Buying MORE of THIS Stock

Summary

Luke discusses Google, which has been his biggest gaining stock over the past year, with Luke having made 15 separate buys last year between $140 and $170 per share, now trading well over $300. He addresses the question of whether to take profits or continue holding/buying, presenting both bear and bull cases.

Arguments for taking profits include:

The stock has had a massive run-up, gaining over 100% for a mega-cap company in a year, which Luke acknowledges is "pretty freaking crazy" and difficult to sustain for such large companies.
A significant portion of Google's reported profits, particularly from mark-to-market investments like SpaceX and Anthropic, are considered "fake" by Luke. He believes this accounting rule is "stupid" and artificially inflated earnings, and he removes these from his personal valuation models.

Conversely, Luke provides strong arguments for holding or buying more:

**Growth Acceleration:** Google's core business growth is accelerating, not slowing down, despite substantial capital expenditure.
**AI Monetization:** Luke sees Google as a clear leader in the AI race, and believes the company is only at the beginning of monetizing its AI initiatives. He suggests getting out now would be a "massive mistake" given the potential multi-trillion-dollar opportunity AI represents.
**Valuation:** Even after backing out the "fake profits," Luke finds Google's valuation to be still cheap, trading between 23 and 25 times earnings. He notes that while not as cheap as it was last year, it remains historically inexpensive for Google.

As a long-term buy-and-hold investor, Luke states he has "no desire to sell any" of his Google shares and is "absolutely holding." He also recommends Google as a buy for long-term investors or those considering dollar-cost averaging, emphasizing its accelerating growth, early AI opportunities, and reasonable valuation.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Luke uses Nvidia as an example to illustrate the scale of Google's previous run-up. He questions the sustainability of such massive gains for a mega-cap company, likening it to 'Nvidia going from where it is right now to well over $400'. This is a hypothetical comparison rather than a direct analysis or recommendation for Nvidia.

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AMD
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Luke mentions AMD in contrast to Google, explaining that its significant past run-up was more understandable because it was 'significantly undervalued' and 'not a mega cap stock' at the time. This comparison serves to highlight the rarity and difficulty of a mega-cap like Google achieving similar percentage gains, rather than providing a current recommendation for AMD itself.

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GOOG
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Luke identifies Google as his biggest gaining stock, having made 15 personal buys last year between $140 and $170 per share. Currently trading well over $300, Luke acknowledges arguments for taking profits, such as its over 100% gain for a mega-cap and 'fake profits' from mark-to-market investments (SpaceX, Anthropic) which he backs out of his valuation. However, Luke's bullish stance is driven by Google's accelerating core business growth, its leadership in AI with monetization just beginning, and a valuation he considers cheap at 23-25 times earnings even after adjusting for the 'fake profits'. As a long-term investor, Luke is 'absolutely holding' his shares and recommends it as a long-term buy for others.

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