Should You Buy Apple Stock Before it Launches a Foldable iPhone? | AAPL STock Analysis

Parkev analyzes Apple's robust financial health, highlighting a 16% revenue increase to $109.4 billion and a massive installed base of 2.5 billion devices. Parkev points out that the company's ecosystem creates high switching costs, which sustains its strong customer retention. Parkev also discusses the potential launch of a foldable iPhone, which Parkev estimates could be priced between $1,500 and $2,000, potentially serving as a massive catalyst for an upgrade cycle.

However, Parkev expresses concerns regarding Apple's outsourced manufacturing model, which faces headwinds from memory price cycles and supply shortages. Parkev notes that while the asset-light model allows for a 70% return on invested capital, it limits control over the supply chain during disruptions. Parkev mentions that rising costs might lead to inevitable price hikes for the iPhone, which adds risk in a tightening macroeconomic environment.

In terms of valuation, Parkev finds the stock unattractive at its current levels. Using a discounted cash flow model, Parkev identifies an intrinsic value of $214 per share. With the stock trading around $316, Parkev calculates a 30% downside risk. Parkev concludes that the market is pricing in perfection, leading to a recommendation to wait for a more favorable price.