Sell These Stocks Before It's Too Late

Couch Investor•Aug 11, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor emphasizes the "uncomfortable side of investing," focusing on how investors should react when stocks experience significant drops, potentially 50% from their all-time highs. Couch Investor argues that true investors must possess a deep understanding of what they own, rather than buying based purely on hype. This fundamental knowledge is crucial to avoid panic selling potentially good businesses or mistakenly holding onto weak ones during market corrections. Couch Investor highlights that even industry giants like Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, and Google have historically faced multiple 50% drawdowns, underscoring that no company is immune and a strong understanding is vital for long-term investing success. Couch Investor cautions against buying into hype, especially in sectors that might be in "bubble territory," characterized by companies valued at billions but generating minimal revenue and burning through cash. Couch Investor also advises exercising caution regarding advice from others who might only showcase gains without revealing percentages, suggesting this often indicates something is being hidden.

Here are some of the companies discussed by Couch Investor:

**Rocket Lab (RKLB):** Couch Investor uses Rocket Lab as the prime example of a stock down close to 50% from its all-time highs, despite being up significantly over the last 12 months and from its lows a few years ago. Couch Investor explains that Rocket Lab's recent 5% post-earnings drop is not due to its current strong growth (revenue up 62% year-over-year, backlog up 136% to $2.35 billion) but rather the market's focus on future catalysts. Couch Investor stresses that for Rocket Lab to justify its premium valuation (a $45 billion company with relatively low revenue), the Neutron rocket must successfully launch and scale up, as it is critical for the long-term thesis and for achieving tens of billions in backlog. Couch Investor notes that the Neutron PAT delivery is expected in Q4 2026, with the first launch likely in Q1 2027, emphasizing that delays are accepted to ensure successful scaling for faster ramp-up to 10 launches over the next few years. Couch Investor also details Rocket Lab's strategic moves, including acquisitions (Iridium, Mineric), global expansion (Germany hub), significant contracts (US Space Force, Space System Command), and technological advancements (Ghost, flatellites), all aimed at positioning it as a comprehensive "one-stop shop" for space needs.

**A Space Mobile (ASTS):** Couch Investor briefly discusses A Space Mobile, highlighting its substantial $26 billion valuation despite barely generating revenue, approximately $30-34 million. Couch Investor points out that investors are paying an "insane amount of premium" for this business. A key concern raised by Couch Investor is that A Space Mobile does not own its launch capabilities, unlike Rocket Lab, meaning it relies on third parties for execution. This dependence significantly increases the execution risk associated with the company, leading Couch Investor to express skepticism about its current valuation and business model.

**Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Google (GOOGL):** Couch Investor references these prominent technology companies as examples of "the best of the best companies" that have historically experienced multiple 50% drawdowns. Couch Investor utilizes these examples to underscore the main thesis: even fundamentally strong businesses can endure significant stock price drops. Couch Investor argues that knowing what one owns is paramount, as informed investors should avoid panic selling these quality businesses during dips, viewing such sales as a "mistake" given their inherent strength and long-term potential.

Mentioned Stocks

RKLB

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Couch Investor uses Rocket Lab as the prime example of a stock down 50% from its all-time highs. Couch Investor emphasizes that while revenue grew 62% year-over-year and backlog increased 136%, the stock's current valuation (a $45 billion company with relatively low revenue) necessitates the success of the Neutron rocket. Couch Investor states that Neutron is the reason for current stock movements and is crucial for the long-term thesis to remain intact and for the backlog to grow substantially. Couch Investor expects Neutron PAT delivery in Q4 2026 and the first launch around Q1 2027, acknowledging delays are acceptable to ensure proper scaling. Couch Investor currently owns Rocket Lab but explicitly states not buying more at current prices, preferring to hold based on the long-term thesis.

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ASTS

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Couch Investor highlights A Space Mobile as a company worth $26 billion that is barely generating revenue (only $30-34 million). Couch Investor points out that investors are paying an "insane amount of premium" for this business. Couch Investor also notes that A Space Mobile does not own its own launch capabilities, relying on others, which increases execution risk compared to Rocket Lab. Couch Investor expresses strong skepticism about the company's valuation and business model, implying it should be avoided.

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