T
TubeFolio
Back to Dashboard

🚨This Dip Won't Last (Buying These 6 Stocks Now)

Summary

Nolan states that the current market environment, despite the S&P 500 being near record highs, hides significant undervaluation in "iconic names" that have been hit by temporary fears. He explains that recent market volatility, including a sharp drop followed by a rebound driven by strong tech earnings, has exposed a separation between companies demonstrating real results from AI spending and those merely spending. Nolan emphasizes that the best opportunities arise when fear is highest, urging investors to identify fundamentally strong businesses experiencing temporary dips rather than permanent issues. He outlines a strategy for finding undervalued stocks using tools like Investing Pro and presents six specific stock recommendations, categorized by risk level for a tiered investment approach.

Nolan's recommendations include:

**Amazon (AMZN):** Nolan considers Amazon a world-class company temporarily undervalued due to fears over its capital spending plans. He notes that recent earnings confirmed the spending is yielding significant returns, with AWS cloud growth, and AI/chip businesses surpassing a $25 billion run rate. Despite a post-earnings jump, Nolan believes Amazon, trading around 27 times forward earnings (below its historical average), remains undervalued, with Morningstar setting a fair value of $300.
**Alphabet (GOOGL):** Nolan is particularly bullish on Alphabet, a stock he has consistently bought monthly for years. He argues that the market misjudges Alphabet's value, focusing on increased spending rather than the substantial growth it fuels, such as Google Cloud's 82% growth and a $514 billion backlog. Trading around $362, down from its $409 peak, Nolan highlights Morningstar's fair value of $433 and an average analyst target of $428, indicating significant undervaluation.
**Disney (DIS):** Nolan points to Disney as an undervalued non-tech option, trading around $96, which is about 52% below its 2021 all-time high of $200. He acknowledges legitimate fears regarding profit declines and debt but stresses that the most recent quarter showed stabilization, which the market overlooked. Nolan believes Disney is cheap at 13 times forward earnings, given its invaluable character library and profitable theme park business, with analysts setting an average target of $127 and Morningstar a fair value of $125.
**Hershey's (HSY):** Nolan identifies Hershey's as another non-tech undervalued stock, trading around $176, down 36% from its 2023 high of $277. The primary reason for the dip was record cocoa prices impacting margins. Despite beating earnings and raising guidance, the stock fell, indicating fear-driven pricing. Nolan anticipates a reversal in cocoa costs by 2027 and notes the company offers a 3.3% dividend yield, with analysts targeting 16% upside.
**Micron (MU):** Nolan views Micron as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, currently in the mid-$800s, down a third from its $1,255 peak. Despite record earnings and its essential High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI being sold out through 2027, the stock dropped due to fears of Chinese competition and memory cycle concerns. Nolan argues that strong demand from tech giants like Amazon and Apple indicates pricing power, and analysts target around $1,500. He cautions about its cyclical nature and the China threat, recommending careful sizing.
**SoFi (SOFI):** Nolan presents SoFi as the stock with the highest discount and highest risk, trading around $17, down 50% from its all-time high. He personally bought more shares during its recent dip. He states SoFi's business is robust, with record revenue, member growth, loan volume, and genuine profitability, no longer being a pre-profit story. Despite this, the stock dropped due to high expectations and not raising profit guidance alongside revenue. While Morningstar raised its fair value to $17.50 and analysts target $19.87, Nolan stresses the high volatility and risks associated with its lending exposure and previous client loss, advising a small, high-risk position.

Nolan concludes by providing three rules for buying the dip: ensure it's a true discount (great business, temporary fear) and not a broken business; buy in pieces through dollar-cost averaging; and size positions according to risk, with riskier names receiving smaller allocations.

Mentioned Stocks

MU
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan sees Micron as a high-risk, high-reward stock, currently in the mid-$800s, down a third from its $1,255 June high. Despite reporting record semiconductor earnings with 346% YoY revenue growth and its High Bandwidth Memory (essential for AI) sold out through 2027, the stock fell due to fears of Chinese competition (CXMT IPO) and cyclical memory oversupply. Nolan counters this by highlighting pricing power, with tech giants like Amazon and Apple complaining about high memory costs. It trades at 6x next year's earnings, with analysts targeting around $1,500. Nolan warns about its cyclical nature and the China threat, advising careful sizing due to its high risk.

Loading chart...
AMZN
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan sees Amazon as a world-class company that was undervalued due to spending fears regarding its $200 billion capital projects. Recent strong earnings disproved these fears, showing a 20% revenue jump, 36.7% growth in AWS, and triple-digit growth in AI/chip businesses. Even after a 13% post-earnings surge, Nolan believes it's still cheap at 27 times forward earnings (below its historical average). Morningstar raised its fair value to $300, confirming its wide moat and undervaluation.

Loading chart...
SOFI
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Nolan identifies SoFi as the highest-discount and highest-risk stock, trading around $17, down 50% from its all-time high. He personally bought more shares during its recent dip. He argues that SoFi's business is robust, with record revenue ($1.2 billion, up 43% YoY), strong member growth, increasing loan volume, and genuine profitability, no longer a "pre-profit story stock." The stock's decline is attributed to high expectations and not raising profit outlook alongside revenue. Morningstar raised its fair value to $17.50, and analysts average a $19.87 target. Nolan explicitly warns of high volatility, analyst "hold" ratings, reliance on personal loans, and a shrinking tech platform, recommending it only for a small, high-risk portion of a portfolio.

Loading chart...
GOOGL
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan has been dollar-cost averaging into Alphabet monthly for two years and likes it even more than Amazon. He believes the market is wrong about its current valuation (~$362), which is down 14% from its May high of $409, seeing it as still undervalued. Despite a monster quarter with 24% revenue growth, the stock fell due to increased spending plans ($205 billion). Nolan highlights that this spending fuels significant growth in Google Cloud (82% growth, $514 billion backlog), the Gemini app, and other ventures like Waymo ($126 billion valuation). Morningstar rates it four stars with a $433 fair value, and analysts average a $428 target.

Loading chart...
DIS
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan sees Disney as significantly undervalued at around $96, down 52% from its 2021 peak of $200. He attributes the dip to real fears like profit drops in entertainment and sports and $41 billion in debt. However, he emphasizes that the most recent quarter showed stabilization with total segment profit up 4%, which the market ignored. Nolan views Disney as cheap at 13 times forward earnings, given its valuable character library and profitable theme parks. Analysts consensus is a strong buy with a $127 average target, and Morningstar has a $125 fair value.

Loading chart...
HSY
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Nolan suggests Hershey's is undervalued at around $176, down 36% from its $277 high, primarily due to record cocoa prices crushing margins. Despite beating earnings, revenue, and raising full-year guidance, the stock fell, indicating fear-driven pricing. Nolan points out that management expects cocoa costs to trend downwards in 2027, reversing the main headwind. The stock also offers a 3.3% dividend yield, and analysts project a 16% upside from current prices.

Loading chart...