The Bears Are Wrong Once Again

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Aug 6, 2026

Summary

Joseph analyzes recent earnings from several core portfolio holdings, focusing on why he believes bearish arguments regarding AI and autonomous vehicle (AV) disruption are flawed. Joseph emphasizes that distribution and massive user bases are the ultimate competitive moats for modern tech companies. He addresses the recent departure of key AI staff at Google, suggesting the company's structural advantages and deep bench of talent are more important than individual researchers. Joseph also highlights his preference for the 'Big Four' capex spenders (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta) because of their annuity-like income streams.

Uber (UBER): Joseph highlights that Uber is growing significantly faster than its peers, with a 16.7% revenue increase and record-high free cash flow of $10 billion over the last 12 months. Joseph argues that the threat from Waymo is overstated, noting Uber is nearly 600 times larger by ride volume and is successfully integrating its own autonomous vehicle partnerships. Joseph predicts the stock will eventually return to the $100 per share level as the market recognizes its dominance in mobility.

DoorDash (DASH): Joseph notes that DoorDash has effectively won the food delivery market in the U.S. with a 65% market share, more than double that of Uber Eats. Joseph points out that the company is rapidly expanding into the grocery vertical and seeing record growth in its DashPass subscription service. Joseph dismisses the idea of AI disrupting the service, stating that the company's operational complexity and logistics network provide a lasting competitive advantage.

Duolingo (DUOL): Joseph observes that despite recent stock volatility and revenue deceleration, Duolingo's user engagement is at an all-time high with over 50 million daily active users. Joseph mentions that the 'AI disintermediation' bear case—the idea that AI tutors will replace the app—is not supported by the data, as retention rates have actually improved to 84%. Joseph intends to hold the stock as long as user growth and retention remain strong.

Google (GOOGL): Joseph defends Google following the departure of high-profile AI figures, arguing that the company's value lies in its massive distribution and infrastructure rather than specific individuals. Joseph maintains that Google is his largest position, valued at approximately $220,000, and believes the market's reaction to management shifts is an overreaction. Joseph remains bullish on the company's market structure and competitive position.

Mentioned Stocks

GOOGL

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph argues that the departure of key AI figures does not damage the company's core value, which is derived from its infrastructure and massive distribution. Joseph maintains that Google is his largest personal holding with $220,000 invested.

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DUOL

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph points out that Duolingo's daily active users reached a record high despite fears of AI competition. Joseph highlights an 84% retention rate, which is an all-time high, suggesting that users are not leaving for AI tutors. Joseph views the recent 8% price drop as typical volatility for the stock.

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BMW

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Joseph labels BMW the 'fail of the week' due to its decision to place Spider-Man advertisements in vehicle dashboards. Joseph calls this 'dystopian' and argues that it alienates the customer base. Joseph suggests that no one should buy a BMW until management commits to removing such advertisements.

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UBER

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph emphasizes Uber's massive scale, noting it is 595 times larger than Waymo by trip volume. Joseph states that the bear case regarding robo-taxi disruption is not reflected in the numbers, as Uber's revenue grew 16.7% and it generated $10 billion in free cash flow. Joseph predicts the stock will reach $100 per share.

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DASH

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph argues that DoorDash has already won the U.S. market with a 65% share. Joseph notes that revenue grew 35% year-over-year and that the company is successfully expanding into the grocery vertical, which is its fastest-growing segment. Joseph believes the logistics complexity prevents AI from easily disrupting the business.

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