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You Won't Believe My Most Recent Trade

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Aug 4, 2026

Summary

Parkev argues that Tesla's current market price of $311 is significantly decoupled from its intrinsic value, which he estimates at $124 per share using a discounted cash flow model. He points out that Tesla trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of over 140, which is many times higher than other established AI companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, or Amazon. While the slow rollout of robo-taxis confirmed Parkev's initial bearish thesis, several unexpected positive developments in 2026 have led him to reduce his bearishness and move to a neutral stance.

Tesla (TSLA): Parkev states that the company's fair value is $124, even when accounting for a generous 7% long-term growth rate and significant future free cash flow projections. He highlights that the $2 trillion SpaceX IPO serves as a potential safety net, as SpaceX could acquire Tesla if the stock price drops much further, effectively putting a floor on the share price. Additionally, Parkev notes that higher oil prices due to geopolitical conflict and increased high-margin software subscriptions for supervised self-driving have improved the company's relative market position.

Mentioned Stocks

TSLA
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev argues that Tesla remains overvalued with a forward P/E ratio over 140 and a calculated fair value of $124 compared to the market price of $311. However, Parkev upgraded the stock to a hold because several factors have created a price floor, most notably the $2 trillion SpaceX IPO which makes Tesla an attractive acquisition target if prices fall further. Additionally, Parkev cites high oil prices driving EV interest and increased revenue from self-driving subscriptions as reasons for his less bearish outlook.

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