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Is UPS Stock an Excellent Dividend Stock to Buy?

Parkev Tatevosian, CFAJul 31, 2026

Summary

Parkev examines the recent quarterly results of UPS, which led to a stock price decline of over 6%. Parkev notes that the company is successfully implementing a strategy of charging higher prices per shipment to offset declining unit volumes. Parkev highlights that the management team has been proactive in cutting costs and redesigning processes, which resulted in free cash flow more than doubling to $1.573 billion for the first half of the year.

Parkev explains that the broader economic environment poses significant risks, specifically naming international trade tariffs and rising energy prices as factors that reduce consumer purchasing power and increase operational costs. Despite these challenges, Parkev expresses confidence in management's efficiency initiatives, which are expected to deliver $3 billion in benefits for the full year.

UPS: Parkev identifies UPS as a hold because the current market price of $105 is very close to Parkev's discounted cash flow fair value estimate of $102. Parkev observes that the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 13.15 is near multi-year lows, but suggests that the significant near-term headwinds make it a risky buy. Parkev mentions that a further 10% decline in the stock price would likely present a much more attractive entry point for investors.

Mentioned Stocks

UPS
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev maintains a hold rating because the stock appears fairly valued at its current price of $105, which is just above Parkev's discounted cash flow fair value calculation of $102. Parkev notes that while the company is well-managed and increasing free cash flow, the negative impacts of tariffs and high fuel costs on consumer spending are likely to persist. Parkev suggests that a better entry point would be if the stock price declined by at least another 10% from current levels.

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