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I’m Buying More Today

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Jul 31, 2026

Summary

Joseph argues that the recent earnings week has validated the thesis that massive capital expenditure (Capex) on AI infrastructure is a significant value driver rather than a burden. Joseph states that while pundits on CNBC have been skeptical of this spending, companies like Microsoft and Amazon have proven that these investments lead to accelerated revenue growth and improved margins. Joseph believes these companies are building the essential infrastructure layer for the entire AI ecosystem, positioning them as primary demand aggregators.

Joseph provides a detailed breakdown of several key players:

Microsoft (MSFT): Joseph highlights that Microsoft surged 15.5% in a single day after beating EPS estimates by 13%. Joseph notes that the company successfully proved it is monetizing AI effectively through its product bundles and seeing strong demand across Fortune 500 companies. Joseph argues that this report effectively shifted investor sentiment from skepticism regarding Capex to realization of its positive returns.
Meta (META): Joseph points out that Meta fell 8% despite growing revenue by 28% and reaching an all-time high of 3.6 billion daily active users. Joseph argues that the earnings miss was primarily due to one-time costs, including a $2.4 billion legal payout and $1.18 billion in severance packages, rather than a decline in the core business. Joseph states that Meta is following the same path as Google, where the market initially doubts the Capex spend before eventually recognizing its immense profitability.
Amazon (AMZN): Joseph observes that Amazon saw a massive run-up because its AWS cloud business grew by 37%, reaching $42 billion in a single quarter. Joseph emphasizes that AWS is becoming more profitable with rising margins and has order fulfillment demand extending out to 2028. Joseph argues that this signals Amazon has 'struck gold' with its current infrastructure investments.
Apple (AAPL): Joseph mentions that Apple reported a beat on earnings and revenue but saw its stock drop 6% due to soft guidance and supply chain concerns. Joseph views these as run-of-the-mill issues and believes the company remains intrinsically healthy, though Joseph does not personally own the stock. Joseph considers Apple's report to be fine overall, even if it lacked the explosive AI-driven growth seen in the other hyperscalers.

Finally, Joseph discusses the 'Fail of the Week' involving Leopold Aschenbrenner and the collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund. Joseph argues that this serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of hubris, extreme concentration, and the use of leverage in investing. Joseph states that even if one correctly identifies a trend, poor risk management can lead to total ruin.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph highlights the 37% growth in AWS revenue and increasing profit margins as proof that Amazon's infrastructure spending is highly successful. Joseph states that the company has visible demand through 2028, signaling a long-term growth trajectory that the market is now starting to price in more aggressively.

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META
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Joseph explicitly mentions buying an additional $4,000 of Meta today despite the stock being down 8%. Joseph argues that the EPS miss was caused by one-time legal charges and severance costs, while core metrics like 28% revenue growth and record user engagement remain incredibly strong. Joseph believes the market will eventually realize the value of Meta's AI spend just as it did with Google and Microsoft.

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MSFT
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph emphasizes that Microsoft is proving its Capex spend is yielding positive results by monetizing AI within its business lines. Joseph notes that Microsoft beat EPS estimates by 13% and is gaining AI users throughout the Fortune 500, demonstrating that its massive investments are creating a profitable infrastructure layer.

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GOOGL
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Joseph mentions Google as the first major capex spender to have its value realized by the market over the past year. Joseph argues that repeated excellent earnings reports dismissed bear concerns, leading the stock to double as the PE ratio expanded from 15 to 25.

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AAPL
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Joseph states that Apple's report was fine and the 6% drop was due to run-of-the-mill concerns like guidance and supply chain issues. However, Joseph does not own the stock and does not express the same level of bullishness as with the other high-Capex AI leaders.

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