Massive News for Uber Stock Investors

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA•Jul 26, 2026

Summary

Parkev analyzes the recent 4% drop in Uber's stock price, which was triggered by reports that Alphabet's Waymo may terminate its partnership with Uber to enter markets like Austin and Atlanta independently by 2028. Parkev argues that the market currently views autonomous driving technology as a one-sided risk for Uber, whereas Parkev identifies it as a massive opportunity to capture high-margin revenue that is currently paid out to drivers. Parkev highlights that Uber pays roughly $80 billion annually to its mobility and delivery drivers, money that could stay with the company if autonomous fleets are successfully deployed.

Parkev also discusses the acquisition of Delivery Hero, noting that Uber's decision to pay in cash rather than stock is a strong signal that management believes the current share price is undervalued. Furthermore, Parkev notes that Uber possesses significant lobbying leverage through its vast network of drivers who can influence local regulators, potentially countering Alphabet's deep financial resources. Parkev maintains a bullish outlook, citing a fair value calculation of $126 per share compared to the current market price of approximately $65.

Uber (UBER): Parkev argues the stock is significantly undervalued and views the transition to autonomous vehicles as a major catalyst for revenue growth. Parkev states that the company's $80 billion in annual driver payouts represents a massive profit opportunity if Uber can facilitate the removal of human drivers. Parkev sets a fair value estimate of $126 and expresses interest in increasing the existing position.

Alphabet (GOOGL): Parkev expresses disappointment that Alphabet's Waymo is moving toward independent operations rather than a partnership with Uber, as this raises risks for both companies. Parkev notes that Alphabet has deeper pockets for lobbying but faces a challenge from Uber's 'people power' in the regulatory arena. Parkev confirms ownership of Alphabet shares but prefers a collaborative approach over direct competition.

Delivery Hero (DHER): Parkev highlights Uber's acquisition of this company as a strategic move to increase scale and negotiating leverage. Parkev observes that the use of cash for this deal suggests Uber's management views their own stock as too cheap to use as currency. Parkev argues that this acquisition strengthens Uber's global footprint and lobbying influence.

Mentioned Stocks

GOOGL

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev mentions owning Alphabet shares but is disappointed by the friction between Waymo and Uber, as Parkev believes a partnership would be lower risk for both parties. Parkev notes that Waymo is planning to enter markets independently, which forces the companies into a lobbying battle over robo-taxi regulations. Parkev characterizes the situation as a two-sided risk that increases uncertainty for Alphabet's autonomous driving segment.

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UBER

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev argues that Uber is currently trading near its 52-week low of $65, which is far below Parkev's calculated fair value of $126. Parkev states that the market is ignoring the massive upside of autonomous vehicles, which could allow Uber to keep the $80 billion it currently pays out to drivers annually. Parkev already owns the stock and expresses a strong interest in adding more shares at current prices.

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