When To Sell A Stock? Part II - Never A Buy With Sven???

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.•Jul 23, 2026

Summary

Sven explains the philosophy of Sven regarding when to sell, emphasizing that a 25% gain is often not enough to trigger a sale if the underlying fundamentals, such as low P/E ratios and solid dividends, remain intact. Sven argues that investors must distinguish between being an owner and a speculator, focusing on absolute returns rather than relative market movements. Sven also highlights that Sven prioritizes risk management above all else, noting that the intrinsic value Sven calculates for the S&P 500 is 3,000, which suggests the broader market is currently overvalued.

HPQ: Sven notes that the stock is up 25%, but the P/E ratio has only moved from seven to nine, which still offers a decent projected return. Sven argues that the dividend remains attractive and the business fundamentals have not changed significantly enough to warrant a sale yet. Sven suggests that Sven typically looks for closer to a 50% gain before re-evaluating the fundamental situation to see if the value received still justifies the position.

TSM: Sven observes that the stock has experienced spectacular growth, but warns that the current AI-driven environment looks like a bubble. Sven states that this makes the stock look like a sell from a risk management perspective, though Sven admits that market ups and downs are impossible to predict. Sven emphasizes that value investors should prioritize protecting capital over chasing momentum in sectors that appear overextended.

ADM: Sven discusses the previous recommendation of Sven for the stock when it was at $50, noting its long history of dividend increases. Sven explains that Sven sold the position around $70 because the dividend yield dropped from 5% to 2.5%, and it no longer fit the specific investment strategy of Sven. Sven uses this as an example of selling when the value proposition diminishes relative to other opportunities or when the yield no longer meets Sven's absolute return requirements.

Mentioned Stocks

NKE

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Sven mentions that Nike has a P/E ratio of 20 and discusses whether the brand value and dividends make it a potential rebound candidate. However, Sven does not give a definitive buy signal and instead questions what the long-term goals for such an investment would be. Sven focuses on the risk of further downside and the necessity of having a clear plan before entering a position.

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TSM

Sentiment: SELLAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven describes the recent performance of the stock as spectacular but suggests that the current AI bubble makes TSM look like a sell. Sven states that Sven prefers to manage risk first and avoids speculating on market ups and downs. Sven highlights that predicting these movements is impossible and focuses on the underlying business risk.

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ADM

Sentiment: SELLAction: SOLD

Reasoning: Sven explicitly states that Sven sold ADM around $70. Sven explains that Sven bought the stock when it was at $50 and the dividend was 5% because it was a cyclical food company with a long history of dividend increases. Sven decided to sell because the dividend yield dropped to 2.5% and the position no longer aligned with the investment strategy of Sven.

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HPQ

Sentiment: HOLDAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Sven notes that the stock is up 25% since Sven last discussed it, but Sven argues that the P/E ratio is still low at nine. Sven suggests that if the business and dividend remain solid, a 25% gain is not necessarily a reason to sell. Sven emphasizes focusing on the value received rather than short-term price fluctuations.

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