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My #1 Stock BUY This Year & Why

Summary

Luke explains why Amazon has become the primary destination for Luke's capital investment this year, even surpassing other significant holdings like SoFi and Google. Luke's thesis centers on the strategy of buying high-quality companies when they are "out of favor" with both Wall Street and retail investors. Luke argues that the best pricing occurs when social media sentiment is negative and the stock is not the current market favorite. Luke emphasizes that this period of underperformance for Amazon is a "dream scenario" for accumulating shares at cheap valuations.

Luke provides a detailed outlook on Amazon's future, focusing on four pillars: its status as an out-of-favor asset, its potential as a major AI winner, its growing moat, and its compelling valuation. Luke believes Amazon's AI focus is internal and aimed at making Luke's business operations more efficient and homogeneous. Furthermore, Luke highlights the company's massive moat, noting that it takes dozens of different competitors to challenge Amazon across its various business arms, such as its recent disruption of the prescription medication industry.

AMZN: Luke has allocated the most capital to Amazon this year, calling the stock a "no-brainer" at current prices. Luke highlights that Amazon is trading at valuation multiples cheaper than mature companies like Walmart or McDonald's. Luke believes the massive capital expenditure being poured into AI and automation will make the business significantly cheaper to operate long-term.
GOOGL: Luke states that Google was Luke's top pick last year when it was trading in the $150 range and was considered to be "dying" by Wall Street. However, Luke notes that the stock has since "run away" in price, which is why Luke is not putting the most money into it this year. Luke continues to hold the position but prefers the current valuation of Amazon.
SOFI: Luke mentions that SoFi is another stock that Luke has put a lot of money into recently. Luke waited for the price to fall from its overvalued all-time highs of $32 before resuming purchases when it became undervalued. While Luke is still buying SoFi, Luke clarifies that it has received less capital than Amazon so far this year.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Luke has invested the most capital into Amazon this year because it has been out of favor for over a year. Luke states that Amazon is trading at historically low valuation multiples, even cheaper than Walmart and McDonald's. Luke believes Amazon will be a major AI winner by applying technology to improve its internal operations and that its moat is untouchable due to the diversity of its 35 different business arms.

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SOFI
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Luke has put a lot of money into SoFi this year after waiting for the price to correct from its overvalued high of $32. Luke resumed buying once the stock returned to what Luke considers an undervalued price, though it remains Luke's second largest capital allocation behind Amazon for the year.

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GOOGL
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Luke was heavily buying Google last year when it was under $200 and specifically around the $150 range. Luke notes that the stock price has now 'run away' and is no longer the primary recipient of Luke's capital because it is no longer as undervalued as it was during its period of being out of favor.

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