Prepare For The Earnings Week Ahead

Joseph Carlson After Hours•Jul 13, 2026

Summary

Joseph provides a comprehensive outlook on the upcoming earnings week, focusing on the shifting dynamics in streaming, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. Joseph argues that Netflix's recent stock price decline—dropping from $140 toward $70—is a reaction to concerns over subscriber engagement and rumors of the platform adopting a cable-like linear channel model. However, Joseph views these moves not as desperation but as a continuation of Netflix's historical pattern of content expansion, citing their successful transitions into documentaries, stand-up comedy, and international content. Joseph suggests that if Netflix's stock enters the $60 range, it represents a significant buying opportunity due to the company's low churn rates and data-driven management.

In the technology sector, Joseph highlights Meta's strategic push to commoditize AI models to undermine competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic. Joseph posits that hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Amazon will ultimately win the AI war because they monetize through massive distribution and infrastructure rather than charging for the models themselves. Additionally, Joseph addresses the legal battles involving Apple and OpenAI, as well as the regulatory challenges facing the Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery merger. Joseph concludes by explaining his decision to trim positions in the semiconductor space, specifically ASML, due to elevated valuations and a predicted slowdown in momentum.

Netflix (NFLX): Joseph argues that the company is facing real engagement challenges but maintains that its management has a proven track record of fixing such issues through data-driven pivots. Joseph notes that the stock has plummeted significantly and mentions that if the price drops from the $70s into the $60s, Joseph will be increasing his personal stake. Joseph believes the low churn rate and high margins make it a durable long-term play despite the current negative media narrative.

Meta (META): Joseph is highly bullish on Meta, noting its 21% rise in the last 15 days following the release of the Musepark 1.1 AI model. Joseph explains that Meta's motivation is to make AI models interchangeable and cheap to protect its vertical integration and monetize through its 3.5 billion daily users. Joseph currently holds a $176,000 position in Meta and views its distribution layer as an insurmountable moat against pure-play AI companies.

ASML (ASML): Joseph states that he has recently trimmed his position in ASML twice, with sales executed around the $1,900 and $1,750 per share marks. Joseph argues that with a P/E ratio of 45, the valuation has become stretched for a company that still experiences cyclical demand. While Joseph remains fundamentally bullish on the company's technology and moat, Joseph believes it is prudent to take profits and reallocate capital into quality growth stocks with lower valuations.

Summary

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