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Costco Stock: Buy the Dip?

Parkev Tatevosian, CFAJul 12, 2026

Summary

Parkev analyzes the recent performance of Costco following a 4% decline in stock price triggered by June sales figures that fell short of investor expectations. Despite the dip, Parkev highlights that Costco's net sales grew by 10.6% year-over-year, demonstrating exceptional performance for a brick-and-mortar retailer. Parkev emphasizes the company's efficiency, noting that while the company has only a fraction of Walmart's locations, the company generates nearly half of Walmart's total revenue.

However, Parkev expresses concern regarding Costco's premium valuation, noting the forward price-to-earnings ratio of 44 is higher than many major tech companies. Parkev calculates a fair value of $799 for the stock, which is significantly lower than the current market price of $913. Consequently, Parkev concludes that the current price does not offer a sufficient margin of safety.

Costco (COST): Parkev views Costco as a best-in-class business with high membership retention and significant growth opportunities in international markets like China. Despite Parkev's admiration for the execution and recession-resilient model of the company, Parkev maintains a neutral stance due to high valuation. Parkev suggests that a price 10% to 15% lower than current levels would be needed to make the stock a compelling buy, specifically eyeing a fair value around $799.

Mentioned Stocks

COST
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Parkev believes Costco is a phenomenal business with 10.6% sales growth and high membership retention, but Parkev notes the current valuation is too high at a forward P/E of 44. Parkev calculates a fair value of $799, while the current price is $913, and Parkev prefers to wait for a price 10% to 15% lower before upgrading the stock to a buy.

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