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Summary
Jeremy opens by highlighting the robust performance of major technology stocks, including AMD, Meta, Amazon, and Google, which have significantly boosted his public investment portfolio. He draws a parallel between the current AI boom and the dot-com bubble, suggesting that this growth cycle could extend for several more years. A significant concern for Jeremy is the dramatic increase in memory chip prices, which he anticipates will lead to considerably higher costs for electronic devices such as upcoming iPhones. This surge is compelling companies like Apple to explore alternative memory suppliers, including those on a Pentagon blacklist from China. Jeremy notes that memory chip manufacturers, including Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, are currently facing class-action lawsuits alleging price collusion.
He further illustrates the pricing power of these memory companies by pointing to Micron's recent financial results, which show revenue growth exceeding 300% while the cost of goods sold increased by only 11%. Jeremy characterizes the memory crisis as an "emergency" that demands the attention of both governments and major tech corporations, as it poses a risk to the AI boom and, consequently, global economic growth. While memory chip companies are poised to achieve substantial profits in the near term, he suggests that their overwhelming success will likely trigger interventions aimed at stabilizing prices, potentially involving big tech companies entering the memory production market themselves. Conversely, large tech spenders like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon could emerge as winners if memory prices stabilize, although Microsoft has been an exception, struggling with its stock performance.
Jeremy then delves into a comprehensive explanation of stock valuation using the Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, establishing a Forward P/E of approximately 20 as a general market benchmark. He provides practical examples:
Finally, Jeremy discusses **ELF Beauty (ELF)**, highlighting his favorable timing in acquiring shares. He explicitly mentions a recent personal purchase of ELF stock at $49.09 on June 5th, which has already yielded a 42% return. He also holds long-standing positions acquired at $7.28 and significant holdings across multiple portfolios. Jeremy asserts that ELF has established a "crystal clear bottom" and forecasts the stock to reclaim its 12-month highs, in the range of $120 to $140, within the next 6 to 12 months. He recommends that investors add as many shares as possible whenever the price falls below $100.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Despite Micron having a seemingly attractive Forward P/E of 12 and enormous current-year EPS growth of 758%, Jeremy issues a strong warning. He explains that for cyclical companies like Micron, a very low Forward P/E often signals a market peak, and that current profitability is unsustainable long-term. He advises that the most dangerous time to buy such stocks is when their Forward P/E is exceptionally low (under 10), and the best time is when it's very high (80-100), implying a clear 'SELL' or 'AVOID' at current conditions.
Reasoning: Amazon is mentioned as one of the 'big tech stocks rolling heavy' and a company that could be seen as a 'winner' if memory prices top, as it is one of the large spenders on memory. This suggests a positive sentiment.
Reasoning: Jeremy notes Meta's Forward P/E is just under 17, which is below the market average of around 20. He attributes this to concerns about the company's high capital expenditures. Despite this, he considers Meta as one of the 'big spenders' in memory, which could position it as a 'winner' if memory prices stabilize, implying a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Reasoning: Jeremy claims 'disgusting timing' with ELF and explicitly states he recently bought shares at $49.09 on June 5th, which are already up 42%. He also holds substantial long-term positions. He believes the stock has established a 'crystal clear bottom' and forecasts it to return to its 12-month highs of $120-$140 within the next 6-12 months. He recommends accumulating as many shares as possible when the price is under $100.
Reasoning: Jeremy highlights AMD's strong performance, noting a significant increase in his public account. He is positive about the company's future due to its expected explosive earnings growth. Although AMD's Forward P/E is 77, Jeremy believes this is skewed by analysts' underestimation of its projected EPS growth of 163% for the current year and 70% for the next year, indicating that the P/E will be quickly justified by these earnings.
Reasoning: Palantir is mentioned among the 'big tech stocks rolling heavy here today,' indicating it's experiencing strong momentum. This suggests a generally positive outlook from Jeremy.
Reasoning: Jeremy refers to Microsoft as 'the only loser of the bunch' among big tech stocks, noting it's down almost 26% over the past year. He states that 'nothing can be positive around Microsoft right now' and that the stock 'just can't catch a break,' indicating a negative sentiment and a recommendation to avoid or sell.
Reasoning: Google is cited as a 'big move' stock and one of the 'big spenders' in memory that could be seen as a 'winner' if memory prices top. This indicates a positive sentiment towards the company.