I Just Bought $15,500 of These Stocks. Here's Why
Summary
Couch Investor presents a portfolio update, noting a 6% weekly decline but emphasizing strong year-to-date and inception-to-date gains. He plans to cover upcoming earnings, revisit stocks from a technical analysis perspective, discuss Jeremy Grantham's recent CNBC appearance, and review his portfolio. He highlights that core positions like Nebus and PayPal spreads are stable, and discusses his retirement portfolio, which he rarely touches, holding long-term positions in companies like Amazon, MercadoLibre, Meta, and Google, with 12.3% cash from selling Tesla shares.
Couch Investor critically refutes Jeremy Grantham's "perma-bear" arguments that the market is historically overpriced. He argues that comparing today's market to 1929, 1970, or 2000 is fallacious. He points to the significantly higher net profit margins (28% for Magnificent 7 vs. 16% for 2000 tech leaders) and lower forward P/E ratios (23.9x vs. 52x) of current leading companies. He also notes the global population increase and advancements in globalization, automation, AI, and robotics, which enhance revenue and profitability. Couch Investor believes that unlike past tech bubbles, many of today's infrastructure-building companies are already well-established and highly profitable, making the "this time is different" argument valid in terms of underlying business strength.
He expresses a long-term bullish outlook, accepting short-term volatility and drawdowns in favor of participating in significant bull rallies. He views market-timing attempts by bears as generally incorrect and missing out on substantial long-term gains. He highlights that he actively bought certain stocks during recent market opportunities.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Nike has upcoming earnings which will discuss tariff refunds, a potential turnaround, and positive momentum from the World Cup. Couch Investor owns it in his retirement portfolio and mentions it as important for most people who own it.
Reasoning: Couch Investor discusses Rocket Lab's technical levels, noting it broke below its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. He believes the support or an area where he would add even more is probably in the low $70s. He purchased 20 shares of Rocket Lab at $88.80, indicating a re-entry strategy after having previously sold shares at higher prices (e.g., $114 and $87). His goal is to re-buy shares at under $100.
Reasoning: Micron reported very good earnings and guidance, leading to an initial pop but then a drop. Couch Investor believes that revenue will continue to go up significantly and that Micron and other memory players will make a lot of money over the next 12 to 24 months, despite concerns about margins. He attributes some market volatility to reports about Apple potentially buying memory from Chinese companies now on a US military list.
Reasoning: Meta stock continues to experience downside pressure. Couch Investor indicates he will add more aggressively at $500-$520, or if it rebounds significantly, above $600-$630. He notes receiving $25 in dividends from Meta. He owns Meta in his retirement portfolio since close to 2018/2019/2020.
Reasoning: Couch Investor might put cash from his retirement portfolio into Nvidia. He sees it as a good buying signal if it stays above or rebounds from the 50-day weekly or 200-day daily moving averages. While not cheap, he considers its valuation 'okay' given its profitability and rapid growth. He also notes receiving dividends from Nvidia.
Reasoning: AMD is still showing quite some momentum and remains above $500, which Couch Investor finds acceptable, describing Google taking 'a little breather' as 'fine as well'.
Reasoning: Couch Investor bought 100 shares of Palantir at $107, citing a 50% drawdown, a PEG ratio around one, insane growth, margin expansion, and the stock being oversold. He previously sold Palantir at $69 and tracked it down to $17 before re-entering. He believes Palantir is a pure winner of AI due to its core mission of helping companies understand and act on their data, which predates and benefits from the current AI boom. He plans to make a dedicated video with a DCF analysis to explain his decision to pay $107 per share.
Reasoning: NIO is a new holding for Couch Investor, currently at $13.17, slightly under its 50-day simple moving average of $13.50. He is down almost 8% on this position but states he is 'fine' with that and is 'still building up there'.
Reasoning: Couch Investor discusses Alphabet (Google) from a technical analysis perspective, noting the 100-day moving average at $336 as the current support line. He owns Google in his retirement portfolio since close to 2018/2019/2020 and rarely touches it.
Reasoning: Axon saw positive movement, reclaiming resistance with a Friday close of $464. Couch Investor states that the stock is currently struggling to stay above $18 per share. He added five extra shares, increasing his position by 25%, at a price of $49 per share. He mentions not having enough time to complete all desired buying for Axon.
Reasoning: Netflix is currently at $73.80, and Couch Investor is still looking for the 200-day moving average around $70. He suggests that if one doesn't want to time the ultimate bottom, the current price of $73.80 could be a good area to add. He is down 13.8% on his Netflix position and is 'fine' with that.
Reasoning: Shift 4 has seen a lot of momentum recently, moving from around $38-$39 to $47 without any specific headlines. Couch Investor notes it was cheap and is now gaining momentum. He states, 'Still haven't sold the shares on that one.'
Reasoning: Uber showed positive momentum, reclaiming the floor of the 50-day moving average at $73.50, closing at $76.20. Couch Investor believes that Uber will slowly but surely make its way back up to $100 per share, drawing a parallel to Robinhood's price movement.
Reasoning: MercadoLibre's stock didn't move much last week and is at the 200-week simple moving average, which is around $1,672, described as an 'active battleground'. It is Couch Investor's largest position in his retirement portfolio.