3 Tech Stocks You’ll Wish You Bought on this Dip (One is Down 41%)

Felix & Friends (Goat Academy)•Jun 29, 2026

Summary

Felix states that many investors are making a critical mistake by "buying the dip" on famous stocks like SoFi, Palantir, and Microsoft without understanding whether they are catching a bargain or a dangerous falling knife. He highlights that a stock's price reflects expectations versus reality and money flow, not just the company's inherent quality. He introduces a "traffic light system" (green, amber, red) derived from institutional Wall Street practices to help investors make unemotional decisions.

The system involves three key questions:

Is money still flowing into the stock's sector or "neighborhood"? If the entire industry is being abandoned, it doesn't matter how good the individual company is.

Which side of the trend line is the stock on? Specifically, is the price above a rising 150-day moving average (clear) or below a falling one (danger/black ice)?

Is the current dip a healthy "rest" or a full-blown "crash" characterized by panic selling on huge volume?

Based on these questions, Felix defines the traffic lights:

**Green:** Money flowing in, price holding above a rising trend line – a good opportunity.

**Amber:** Mixed signals, a great company at the wrong moment – wait and be patient.

**Red:** Money fleeing, price under a falling trend line, ugly volume – a falling knife, very painful.

Felix urges viewers to apply this system to their own portfolios, especially before what he predicts will be a significant market shift around the end of July. He offers a free live training session to help investors identify and address "red" and "amber" flags in their holdings. He concludes by reiterating the core lesson: a great company is not the same as a great stock, and investors should never buy simply because a stock seems "cheap." Instead, they should focus on a balanced team of "green light" stocks, benching the "reds," and always having an exit strategy.

**SoFi:** Felix notes SoFi is down 40% from its high, and he personally no longer owns it, having exited based on his system. He observes that money is gradually starting to flow back into SoFi, and its price has clawed just above its short-term trend line, although the 150-day moving average hasn't fully turned up. He classifies it as "sort of greenish with a bit of amber," indicating it's a recovering stock on his watchlist. He advises waiting for it to rise above recent highs for confirmation before considering a buy, as it's still "a little too early" for him to act.

**Palantir (PLTR):** Down 45%, Felix also previously owned Palantir but doesn't now. He finds that institutional money is still flowing into the company, and the business is growing. However, the critical issue for Palantir is that its trend has rolled over, with the price well below its falling 150-day moving average, which is a "clear red flag." He describes its decline as a "grinding" sideways-downwards slip. Felix labels Palantir as "at very least an amber" – a great company at the wrong moment – and strongly advises a "hands off" approach, waiting for institutional money to gush back in and for the stock to flip from amber to green. He explicitly warns against catching falling knives.

**Microsoft (MSFT):** Despite being an "extraordinary business" long-term and the "biggest AI bet on Earth," Microsoft is down 25%. Felix argues that money is quietly leaving Microsoft, making it the weakest of the "Magnificent Seven" in terms of relative strength. Its price is trading below every major trend line, with the long-term trend sloping down, which he calls a "private bear market" and "black ice for investors." He describes its decline as a "slow, steady, grinding" one, not a quick rest, resulting in "red, red, red" signals. He unequivocally calls Microsoft a "falling freaking knife" for now. Although he owns it passively through an index fund, he states he would not actively buy it currently. His condition for buying would be the price reclaiming its 150-day moving average, that line flattening then turning up, and money flowing back in with green volume.

Mentioned Stocks

SOFI

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Money is starting to flow back in, and the price is above its short-term trend line, though the long-term trend (150-day moving average) hasn't fully turned up. Felix advises waiting for the price to rise above recent highs before considering a buy, placing it on his watchlist.

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PLTR

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: While money is still flowing in and the business is growing, the stock's trend has rolled over, with the price well below its falling 150-day moving average. Felix considers this a "clear red flag" and a "trap," classifying it as "amber" – a great company at the wrong moment. He advises waiting for institutional money to return and the stock to turn "green" before considering a purchase, warning against catching a falling knife.

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MSFT

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Despite being an extraordinary long-term business, Microsoft is currently exhibiting "red" signals. Money is quietly leaving, it's lagging the market, and its price is trading below all major trend lines, with the long-term trend sloping downwards, indicating a "private bear market" and a "falling knife." Felix advises against buying it now, even though he owns it passively through an index fund. He states he would only consider investing when the price reclaims its 150-day moving average, that line flattens and turns up, and money flows back in with increased volume.

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