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Stocks NOBODY Wants...But Could be the NEXT BIG Winners

Summary

Luke begins by addressing investor questions about recent stock price declines, aiming to distinguish between genuine opportunities and potential traps. He emphasizes a long-term buy-and-hold perspective, dismissing 52-week lows as automatically signifying undervaluation. Luke then proceeds to analyze several stocks in detail:

**McDonald's:** Luke advises staying away from McDonald's. Despite its 52-week low, he sees limited growth potential and notes its high valuation in previous years made it unattractive. He questions its status as a discount food option during tough economic times due to its increased pricing and identifies underlying business problems that need resolution. He explicitly states he is "completely out" of McDonald's and not interested in it.
**Microsoft:** Luke considers Microsoft an "incredible business" that is currently trading at historically low multiples despite its strong fundamentals. He views it as a "steal deal" because the company is robust and will thrive regardless of how specific AI bets play out, unlike more speculative AI plays. He suggests it's a strong consideration for investors, looking like a great company by all metrics.
**Lucid:** Luke has consistently been negative on Lucid since 2021. He points out that while revenue is up, losses are also increasing, indicating a worsening financial situation, which is the opposite of what an investor would want. He sees no clear path to profitability or a large total addressable market and believes the company, caught in EV hype, may need to raise more capital without any sustainable signs of a turnaround. He advises staying far, far away from it, seeing no fundamental improvements soon.
**Salesforce:** Similar to Microsoft, Luke identifies Salesforce as an "incredible business" currently caught in a "SaaS-pocalypse." He sees a significant long-term opportunity if its management successfully integrates AI into its products. This integration could improve margins, boost profits, and allow for price increases, making it a great business long-term and a preferable investment over Lucid.
**Mercado Libre:** Luke describes Mercado Libre as fundamentally strong with attractive valuations, appearing to be a "steal deal." However, he introduces a strong caveat: investors must deeply understand the non-US markets it operates in. Factors like currency exchange, global recessions, and local consumer behavior are critical to its performance. Without this understanding, an investor might misinterpret market fluctuations and struggle to make informed decisions about whether to double down during a downturn or if the company is in actual trouble.
**Nike:** Luke acknowledges Nike is beaten down and cheap but has significant long-standing business problems. He argues that as a mature company, its growth potential is limited, and it has been slow to respond to market share erosion by newcomers who have stolen its thunder. He views Nike as a "legacy style business" and a "dividend type play," which does not align with his current investment needs for high-growth opportunities, clarifying that it is not a high-growth company on a discount.
**Netflix:** Luke is monitoring Netflix for a potential future buy, though he needs it to get "a little bit cheaper" in his personal opinion before he is ready to pull the trigger. He recognizes Netflix as the most profitable streaming service, capable of raising prices and retaining subscribers, and views them as the best in streaming. He sees a multi-year journey for its growth story to pick up again and believes Netflix is well-positioned to dominate the streaming market and potentially acquire struggling competitors at favorable prices as others exit the unprofitable streaming business.
**GameStop:** Luke maintains a highly negative stance on GameStop, echoing his criticism since 2021. He asserts that the shift to online gaming fundamentally undermines its business model, and the lack of quality in new games hurts the industry generally. He dismisses any positive developments as "accounting tricks" rather than tangible, long-term business improvements, stating he doesn't see a long-term future for the business. He strongly advises investors to stay "far, far away" from the stock.

Mentioned Stocks

NKE
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Luke acknowledges Nike is beaten down and cheap but highlights its long-standing business problems and limited growth potential as a mature company. He notes that newcomers have stolen market share due to Nike's slow response and lack of innovation. He views it as a "legacy style business" and a "dividend type play," which does not fit his current portfolio needs for high-growth companies. He clarifies it is not a high-growth company on a discount.

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CRM
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Luke views Salesforce as an "incredible business" that is deeply ingrained in many other businesses, currently caught in a "SaaS-pocalypse." He sees a great opportunity long-term if management can appropriately incorporate AI into its products. This could lead to improved margins, higher profits, and potentially allow them to raise prices. He explicitly states he would "definitely take that one over Lucid any day of the week."

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MSFT
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Luke considers Microsoft an "incredible business" that is trading at traditionally low multiples, some of the lowest in a long time. He believes it's a great company and stock, which will be "just fine regardless" even if AI expectations aren't fully met, unlike other speculative AI plays. By all metrics, he thinks it "looks like it's a steal deal" and would be considering looking at it.

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GME
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Luke has been critical of GameStop since 2021, arguing that gaming is moving online, which hurts its business model. He dismisses any positive developments as "accounting tricks" rather than tangible, long-term business improvements. He does not see a long-term future for the business and strongly advises investors to stay "far, far away" from it.

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NFLX
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Luke is looking at Netflix for a potential future buy but needs it to get "a little bit cheaper" before he is ready to pull the trigger. He believes Netflix is the best at streaming, being the only one able to make it profitable. He sees potential for them to dominate the market further and acquire competitors' assets at fire-sale prices, but expects a multi-year journey for its growth story to fully pick up again, despite its current cheap valuation.

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MCD
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Luke advises staying away from McDonald's. Despite its 52-week low, he sees not a lot of growth potential. He questions if it's still a discount go-to place during tough times, noting it's gotten "crazy expensive." He believes they have business problems to solve and doesn't see a reason to invest if the economy picks up. He is personally "completely out" of the stock.

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LCID
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Luke has been speaking out against Lucid since 2021. He notes that while revenue is up, losses are bigger, which is a bad sign. He sees no clear pathway to profitability or a big total addressable market (TAM). He believes there are no sustainable signs of a turnaround and expects the company may need to raise more capital. He states he will "stay far, far away from" it.

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MELI
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Luke finds Mercado Libre interesting, stating its fundamentals are great and valuation has come down, making it "look like a steal deal." However, he strongly cautions that investors must understand the non-US markets it services, including currency dynamics, global recessions, and consumer behaviors in those regions. Without this deep market understanding, investors might not know how to react to significant price drops, even if the underlying numbers look great.

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