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Netflix Stock is Crashing - Is It A Buy Now?

Daniel Pronk•Jun 23, 2026

Summary

Daniel analyzes Netflix's current market position, noting its 45% decline from all-time highs and recent failed acquisition attempts for companies like Warner Brothers and Roku. He refutes the bear case that Netflix is desperate for acquisitions, suggesting instead that their willingness to walk away from high-priced deals proves the core business is stable. However, he highlights a clear trend of revenue growth deceleration, with projections dropping from mid-teens to low double digits in the coming years, marking Netflix as a maturing entity.

Daniel's outlook is tempered by increasing competition for "living room" screen time from both traditional and new social media rivals. He points out that while the overall streaming market is growing, YouTube is capturing a significantly larger portion of that growth compared to Netflix. Using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model based on a 10x EBITDA multiple and 12% annual growth, Daniel calculates a fair value of approximately $79 per share and a three-year target price of $105. He concludes that he is not buying the stock because other companies offer wider moats and higher potential returns.

NFLX: Daniel views Netflix as a mature company with decelerating revenue growth that is expected to hit 10.3% by 2028. He estimates a fair value of $79 and a future price of $105 based on a 10x EBITDA multiple, resulting in a 13% CAGR. He believes the stock is currently at fair value rather than being a bargain despite its 45% drop from highs.
META: Daniel considers Meta a more attractive investment than Netflix due to its wider moat and higher potential future returns. He highlights Meta's strategic move to bring Instagram Reels and horizontal video to TVs as a direct competitive threat to Netflix's watch time. He suggests Meta offers better value at current market prices.
AMZN: Daniel prefers Amazon over Netflix, citing higher potential future returns and a more diversified business model. He observes that Amazon's streaming market share is growing more effectively than Netflix's share. In his analysis, Amazon represents a better opportunity for investors seeking higher growth and stronger competitive advantages.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Daniel prefers Amazon due to its diversifying business and ability to capture streaming market share more effectively than Netflix. He argues that Amazon offers better value and higher potential returns at current prices, supported by a wider competitive moat.

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META
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Daniel states that Meta offers much more value and higher potential future returns than Netflix. He highlights Meta's expansion into long-form and TV-based content via Instagram as a strong competitive move and considers the business to have a wider moat and faster growth profile.

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NFLX
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Daniel believes Netflix is a maturing business with revenue growth projected to decelerate to 10.3% by 2028. He notes intense competition from YouTube, which is capturing more market share. His DCF analysis puts the fair value at $79 and a future price target of $105, which he considers fair value but not a high-conviction buy compared to other tech giants.

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