🚨WARNING: This First Crash Is Just The Beginning..
Summary
Nolan provides an analysis of the recent market volatility, noting that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have seen significant declines over the past four weeks while defensive ETFs like SCHD have remained positive. He explains that the primary drivers of this shift are the escalation of the Iran conflict and rising oil prices, which have surpassed $100 per barrel. Nolan warns that if oil prices reach the $120 to $150 range, it could trigger a recession and complicate Federal Reserve policy, likely leading to delayed rate cuts and short-term market pain.
Nolan discusses the rebalancing of two major ETFs: SCHD and SPMO. SCHD has moved toward a more defensive posture by adding companies like United Health and Blackstone while reducing its energy weighting. SPMO, a momentum-focused ETF, has removed Meta and added positions in Micron, Google, and AMD. Nolan views these downturns as a "slow bleed" that could lead to a bear market, but suggests that investors with "dry powder" should look for opportunities in the hardest-hit sectors.
Looking ahead to April, Nolan identifies the Q1 earnings season as a critical period for market direction. He outlines a four-week watch list:
Nolan highlights specific stocks and ETFs:
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Nolan notes that Meta has been dropping 'like crazy with no end in sight' and was specifically removed from the SPMO momentum ETF during its recent rebalance, suggesting a lack of near-term upward momentum.
Reasoning: Nolan identifies Microsoft as being 'down bad' along with other tech stocks, but he argues that such pullbacks are historically the best buying opportunities for long-term investors. He encourages viewers to use 'dry powder' to enter positions in high-quality companies that are currently hurting.
Reasoning: Nolan praises SCHD for its defensive strength and 10.5% year-to-date performance. He views the recent rebalance—adding names like United Health, Blackstone, and P&G—as a positive move that solidifies its role as a reliable dividend-growing asset during market volatility.
Reasoning: Nolan describes SPMO as one of his favorite and most exciting ETFs due to its momentum tilt. He highlights its ability to outperform the S&P 500 and its lower drawdowns during market crashes, noting the recent strategic addition of Google and AMD.