Most Important Week for the Stock Market in 2026
Summary
Nolan states that the upcoming week is pivotal for the stock market, as over 20% of S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings. He emphasizes that with markets currently at high levels and pricing in strong earnings, companies must exceed expectations and provide positive AI narratives and guidance to prevent a market downturn. Nolan identifies three critical themes for the week: an AI monetization reality check, consumer strength versus potential cracks, and broader market risks including geopolitical events and oil prices. Despite record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, primarily driven by AI and semiconductor rallies, Nolan cautions that the market shows underlying fragility, with intraday pullbacks and increasing volatility. He notes that while industrial and semiconductor sectors are strong, software is showing cracks.
Nolan discusses several key companies and ETFs:
Looking ahead, Nolan highlights several mega-cap tech companies with critical upcoming earnings reports:
Other important reports include Starbucks (SBUX) for consumer strength (US vs. China demand) and Bloom Energy (BE) for the AI data center energy demand narrative, particularly in hydrogen and clean energy. Nolan stresses that a cluster of these heavy hitters reporting within 48 hours can significantly move the entire market.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Broadcom is cited as one of the "solid companies crushing it" and a key holding within the recommended DTCR ETF, which is favored for its exposure to digital infrastructure and semiconductors.
Reasoning: Micron is mentioned as a semiconductor company that is "on fire," having surged over 50% year-to-date. It is also noted as one of the "solid companies crushing it" within the recommended DTCR ETF.
Reasoning: Meta's earnings will focus on ad revenue strength, the impact of AI on ad targeting improvements, and the ongoing losses from Reality Labs. Nolan identifies Meta as "one of the biggest AI and advertising plays," indicating a positive long-term view despite potential short-term challenges.
Reasoning: Nvidia is noted as one of the "solid companies crushing it" and a significant component of the recommended DTCR ETF, which offers exposure to digital infrastructure and semiconductors.
Reasoning: AMD is mentioned as one of the "solid companies crushing it" that is held within the recommended DTCR ETF, which focuses on digital infrastructure and semiconductors, implying a positive outlook.
Reasoning: ServiceNow met expectations, but its stock still dropped over 12%. This decline was attributed to weak deal flow, stemming from broader macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, indicating that the enterprise software sector is significantly impacted by macro factors.
Reasoning: Taiwan Semiconductor is highlighted as one of the "solid companies crushing it" and a core holding in the recommended DTCR ETF, which targets digital infrastructure and semiconductor sectors.
Reasoning: Microsoft's upcoming earnings report is highlighted as one of the most important for the quarter. The market's focus will be on Azure growth, cloud performance, and AI monetization strategies, particularly Copilot and enterprise AI. Nolan expects its results to set the tone for the continuation of the broader AI trade.
Reasoning: For Alphabet (Google), the upcoming earnings will be watched for AI search competition, YouTube ad revenue, and cloud growth. Nolan emphasizes that investors will be assessing whether AI integration is negatively impacting search margins or boosting user engagement.
Reasoning: Apple's earnings report will be closely watched for iPhone demand trends, sales performance in China, and the growth of its services segment. Nolan notes that Apple is a company whose results frequently influence overall market sentiment.
Reasoning: Despite beating earnings, IBM's stock dropped 7-12% because of weak guidance and concerns about AI disruption. Nolan emphasizes that beating estimates is not enough; the overall environment and forward guidance are more critical for market reaction.
Reasoning: Tesla reported strong Q1 revenue of $22.4 billion (+16% YoY) and solid EPS growth. However, the stock dipped despite these strong numbers due to market concerns over a massive $25 billion spending ramp planned for AI and robo-taxi initiatives, as Tesla transitions from an EV company to an AI platform. Nolan notes the mixed market reaction due to spending concerns.
Reasoning: American Airlines reported a record Q1 revenue of $13.9 billion, indicating strong travel demand despite weather impacts. However, Nolan raises a cautionary note regarding the potential negative impact of worsening oil prices on future travel demand.
Reasoning: Nolan describes Bitcoin as "booming or at least starting to grow finally," noting its "pretty solid" performance over the past month, suggesting a positive trend for the digital asset.
Reasoning: Bloom Energy is noted for its relevance to the AI data center energy demand narrative, specifically its focus on hydrogen and clean energy solutions. This positioning makes it a key stock to watch given the increasing energy requirements of AI infrastructure.
Reasoning: Nolan is "high on" IREN, another AI stock focusing on the power and infrastructure side. It has seen a year-to-date increase of 21% and is among the companies Nolan has frequently discussed on his channel, signifying his recommendation.
Reasoning: Nolan expresses being "high on" APLD, an AI stock in the power and infrastructure sector, noting its impressive gain of almost 30% year-to-date. He states that he has "talked a lot about" this company on his channel, further indicating his positive stance. It's also a significant holding in the recommended DTCR ETF.
Reasoning: SMH, a semiconductor ETF, is highlighted by Nolan as a "really solid ETF" that he "likes." It is up over 27% year-to-date, holding various semiconductor companies that have been performing exceptionally well.
Reasoning: Nolan mentions SCHD as "quietly one of the strongest of 2026" (likely referring to 2024 given context), having gained over 13% year-to-date and more than 23% over the past year. Its performance was significantly boosted by Texas Instruments, one of its largest holdings, which reported strong earnings.
Reasoning: Nolan explicitly states, "I do like DTCR," positioning it as another "really solid ETF" he has talked about extensively. This Global X Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF is up almost 30% year-to-date. It offers a diversified investment in AI by holding key data center stocks like APLD and semiconductor giants such as Micron, AMD, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Nvidia. Nolan emphasizes its potential given projected global data center revenue growth from $416 billion to $624 billion.
Reasoning: NEUB is highlighted by Nolan as an AI stock he is "high on," boasting a substantial 77% gain year-to-date. Like APLD and IREN, it is in the power and infrastructure sector and has been a frequent topic on his channel, suggesting a recommendation.
Reasoning: Texas Instruments beat earnings expectations with an EPS of $1.68 versus $1.36 expected, and revenue grew by 19% year-over-year. The stock surged approximately 10% after earnings due to strong industrial and automotive chip demand and improving margins. Nolan also highlights its positive impact on the SCHD ETF as one of its biggest holdings.
Reasoning: Starbucks' earnings report will be a key indicator of consumer strength, with a specific focus on demand trends in the US versus China. Nolan highlights it as providing a "strong read on consumer spending health," rather than giving a direct sentiment on the stock itself.