The AI & Quantum Boom Is Just Starting (Best Stocks to Buy Now)
Summary
Nolan addresses the common investor question about the best way to invest in high-growth sectors like quantum computing and AI over a 10-year horizon. He begins with a crucial reality check, cautioning that while the technologies themselves are likely to grow, this doesn't guarantee stock performance, nor does it ensure that today's leaders will remain dominant. He draws a parallel to the dot-com era, where many investors lost money despite the internet's eventual success.
Nolan highlights the significant risk of concentrating investments in highly speculative sectors, particularly quantum computing, where widespread commercial applications are still 5 to 10 years away, and many pure-play startups are expected to fail. He emphasizes that a 'buy and forget' strategy is best suited for durable businesses or diversified portfolios, not concentrated bets. He contrasts this with the success stories of long-term investors who typically build wealth through 'boring indexes' like the S&P 500, allocating only a small 'thematic sleeve' to higher-risk, high-growth sectors.
For AI investment, Nolan categorizes options by risk level:
For quantum computing investment, Nolan again outlines options by risk:
Finally, Nolan outlines his recommended portfolio construction for those seeking exposure to thematic growth while mitigating risk:
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Micron is highlighted by Nolan as a company that supplies the high-bandwidth memory crucial for AI chips, making it a beneficiary of the AI wave. While historically more cyclical, it is currently riding the strong demand driven by the AI sector's growth. This positions Micron as a medium-risk play that contributes essential components to the AI infrastructure.
Reasoning: Amazon is listed as one of the diversified, profitable AI megacaps, benefiting from major AI investments. Nolan notes that such companies are well-positioned to gain from an AI boom and can rely on their existing cash flows for stability if the AI sector underperforms. Amazon also has serious quantum efforts, providing a broad exposure to both high-growth technologies within a lower-risk framework.
Reasoning: Meta is identified by Nolan as a diversified, profitable AI megacap, making it a relatively least risky investment in the AI sector. Morningstar is cited as flagging Meta as undervalued, partly due to the company's investments in consumer-facing AI through its Llama chatbot. This positions Meta to benefit from the AI boom while being able to leverage its existing profitable business if AI growth is slower than expected.
Reasoning: Nvidia is presented as a dominant 'picks and shovels' name in AI, securing a strong market position in training large AI models. Nolan, however, highlights its medium-risk profile due to a high valuation that leaves little margin for error and potential market share erosion from competitors. Furthermore, Nvidia is involved in quantum computing, positioning itself as an essential bridge between quantum and classical computing through its Qiskit Q platform, making it a multifaceted play.
Reasoning: AMD is considered a medium-risk 'picks and shovels' investment in AI, presented as a secondary bet to Nvidia. Nolan's thesis for AMD is its established leadership in the data-center CPU market. He predicts that the massive shift in AI, changing the GPU to CPU ratio, will lead to an explosion in CPU demand, which directly benefits AMD.
Reasoning: Palantir is categorized by Nolan as a higher-risk AI-native software company, offering higher growth potential within the AI sector. However, he cautions that these types of companies are more sensitive to sentiment swings and often have very rich valuations. Despite these risks, it's presented as an option for investors seeking aggressive growth in AI applications.
Reasoning: ServiceNow is identified by Nolan as a higher-risk AI-native software company, known for its significant growth potential within the AI landscape. He notes that such companies are particularly susceptible to market sentiment shifts and often trade at very rich valuations. Despite these inherent volatilities, it's included as an option for those seeking higher-growth, application-focused AI investments.
Reasoning: Nolan classifies Microsoft as a diversified, profitable AI megacap, emphasizing its substantial AI investments. These large businesses are positioned to benefit significantly if AI booms, and their existing cash flows provide resilience if the sector disappoints. Microsoft also has serious quantum efforts, making it a lower-risk way to gain exposure to both emerging technologies, as part of Nolan's recommended portfolio structure.
Reasoning: Nolan highlights Alphabet as a diversified, profitable AI megacap that benefits from AI growth while surviving potential disappointments due to existing cash flows. For quantum computing, Nolan notes Alphabet's serious quantum efforts, specifically mentioning its Willow chip making breakthrough progress. He further states that billionaires have settled on Google parent Alphabet as their preferred quantum computing stock, indicating it's a strong, lower-risk choice.
Reasoning: Nolan describes IonQ as a 'lottery ticket stock' within the higher-risk pure quantum play category, acknowledging huge potential upside if the technology succeeds, but also near-total loss potential. He notes its extreme, unproven valuation and the dilutive nature of pure-play quantum companies. Despite these risks, Nolan states IonQ is often flagged as the most commercially mature among pure plays, with the largest revenue and clear roadmap.
Reasoning: Nolan categorizes Rigetti as a higher-risk pure quantum play, likening it to a 'lottery ticket stock' with both huge potential upside and near-total loss potential. He emphasizes the extreme and unproven valuations, along with the heavily dilutive nature of pure-play quantum companies that issue equity to fund R&D. Rigetti, alongside D-Wave, is specifically noted for having a much smaller revenue base compared to IonQ.
Reasoning: IBM is listed by Nolan as a big tech name with serious quantum efforts, falling into the lower-risk category for quantum investments. He specifically mentions that IBM is on track to deliver fault-tolerant quantum computers by 2029. This strategy offers quantum upside if the technology develops, while also providing the stability of a profitable, established business if it takes longer than expected.
Reasoning: Snowflake is categorized by Nolan as a higher-risk AI-native software company, offering substantial growth potential. He advises that companies in this segment are highly sensitive to market sentiment and often exhibit very rich valuations. As an AI application name, it provides exposure to the sector's innovation, albeit with increased risk for investors pursuing aggressive returns.
Reasoning: Nolan mentions Oracle as an 'infrastructure side play' within the least risky category of AI investments, as flagged by Morningstar. This suggests it's a solid option for investors looking for exposure to the foundational elements supporting AI development. As a profitable business, Oracle offers a degree of stability even as it benefits from AI sector growth.
Reasoning: Nolan includes Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) among the higher-risk pure quantum plays, describing it as a 'lottery ticket stock' with potential for huge upside but also near-total loss. He highlights that pure-play valuations are extreme and unproven, and these companies are heavily dilutive. QUBT is specifically noted as the smallest and most speculative among the pure quantum plays, emphasizing its very high-risk profile.
Reasoning: Nolan strongly recommends the S&P 500 as a core component, making up at least 50% of a portfolio, describing it as a 'boring' but historically reliable path to long-term growth. He highlights that most long-term millionaire stories are built on diversified index funds like the S&P 500. This forms the stable foundation for any higher-risk thematic investments.
Reasoning: Nolan includes Honeywell among the lower-risk big tech names with exposure to quantum computing, noting its majority ownership of Quantinuum, a leading trapped-ion firm. This approach allows investors to gain quantum upside if the technology progresses, while also owning a profitable, established business that can withstand longer development timelines. It represents a more conservative way to invest in quantum.
Reasoning: Nolan recommends AI-themed ETFs as the 'simplest option' for investing in artificial intelligence, providing a diversified basket of stocks. This approach mitigates single-stock risk and, while offering lower potential upside than picking a single winner, also prevents a total loss from one company. He includes AI ETFs as a core component of his suggested diversified portfolio structure.
Reasoning: D-Wave is identified by Nolan as a higher-risk pure quantum play, sharing the characteristics of a 'lottery ticket stock' with significant upside potential but also the risk of near-total loss. Nolan points out the extreme and unproven valuations, alongside the heavy dilution faced by shareholders as pure plays fund their R&D through equity issuance. D-Wave, similar to Rigetti, is noted for its much smaller revenue base.
Reasoning: Nolan recommends a Quantum ETF as the 'simplest option' for investing in the quantum computing sector, as it provides exposure through a diversified basket of quantum-exposed names. This method removes the risk of betting on a single company's survival in a highly speculative field. He also explicitly states that he has created a video on the best quantum ETFs and highly recommends researching them further for portfolio inclusion.
Reasoning: Nolan recommends allocating at least 50% of a portfolio to broad index funds like the total US stock market, emphasizing its role as a 'boring' yet historically proven path to long-term wealth. He posits that this diversified approach is the foundation for successful long-term investing, allowing for smaller, higher-risk thematic 'sleeves' without jeopardizing the entire portfolio.
Reasoning: Nolan suggests a 'pure technology sleeve' of about 15% in a diversified portfolio, specifically recommending a broad technology ETF. This ETF should encompass various technology sectors, providing exposure to the broader tech market beyond just AI and quantum. This allocation aims to capture overall technological growth while maintaining diversification.
Reasoning: Nolan suggests including a 'crypto sleeve' of about 10% in a diversified portfolio, specifically recommending a Bitcoin ETF. This allows investors to participate in the potentially high-growth crypto market without directly holding the underlying asset. He emphasizes that this allocation should be small enough not to catastrophically impact the net worth if it fails, balancing risk with high reward potential.
Reasoning: Nolan advises dedicating a 'crypto sleeve' of around 10% of a portfolio, suggesting an Ethereum ETF as an option alongside or instead of a Bitcoin ETF. This provides exposure to another major digital asset within a thematic allocation. He underscores that this portion of the portfolio is for participating in high-growth areas, but its limited size ensures that a failure wouldn't lead to a catastrophic loss of net worth.