Forget NVDA.. These Quantum Stocks Could Be Bigger

Reasoning: Nolan is very positive on Google for quantum computing, stating it has some of the world's deepest AI talent, massive cash flow, and elite research capabilities to fund quantum breakthroughs for years. He highlights Google's progress, such as the Willow processor demonstrating 800 times lower error correction rates and the Quantum Echoes algorithm achieving verifiable quantum advantage. Nolan, who owns Google as one of his largest single stocks, believes it can combine AI, cloud, and quantum into a powerful ecosystem. He notes that the stock is currently expensive and near all-time highs after a recent run-up, which is a consideration for new investors.

Reasoning: Nolan likes IonQ because it's already shipping hardware and posted significant revenue growth (755% YOY increase to $64.7 million), with guidance for $270 million in 2026 revenue. He particularly highlights its aggressive acquisition strategy (e.g., ID Quantique, LightCounting, Vector Atomic, Skyloom, Skywater Technology) aimed at building a full quantum ecosystem, not just a computer, which he believes provides a strong moat. He personally started a position in his portfolio recently. However, he notes that it is still new, speculative, volatile, and posting significant adjusted losses.

Reasoning: Nolan views Rigetti as the highest risk, highest reward opportunity, providing a pure-play bet on superconducting quantum hardware, similar to IBM and Google but with potentially larger stock impact due to its smaller size. He notes its in-house manufacturing, cloud access services, and the recent launch of its 108-qubit modular system. With projected revenues of $25 million this year, Nolan believes Rigetti's modular architecture makes it a prime acquisition candidate. He is particularly fond of its strategy to work alongside Nvidia in a hybrid model (GPUs for AI, QPUs for complex algorithms), which he sees as "so smart." Nolan states he will have a small, volatile piece of Rigetti in his portfolio for long-term upside.

Reasoning: Nolan considers IBM a "bedrock" play in quantum computing, emphasizing its transparent roadmap, delivery of near-term quantum advantage tools, and target of a 100,000-qubit system by 2033. He points out that IBM already has over 20 quantum systems on the cloud, accessible to over 250 organizations, and possesses the best full ecosystem moat in the industry (hardware, Qiskit software, enterprise customers, cloud access). This positions IBM to monetize quantum advancements faster due to existing customers, infrastructure, and trust. A con is that quantum is a small part of IBM's large, mature business, meaning breakthroughs may not significantly move the overall stock.

Reasoning: Nolan considers D-Wave an 'honorable mention' and is intrigued by its ability to solve real business problems today and its impressive customers (Lockheed Martin, Volkswagen, Deloitte, BASF), suggesting practical current value. However, he highlights significant risks due to intense competition from much larger companies like IBM and Google, as well as pure-play competitors that are further along, such as Rigetti and IonQ. D-Wave is playing catch-up in gate model technology after its acquisition of Quantum Circuits Inc., facing tech giants with far deeper pockets.

Reasoning: Nolan recommends Honeywell as the "smartest play" for low-risk quantum exposure, highlighting that it owns the majority of Quantinuum, which just raised $600 million at a $10 billion valuation and holds world records for quantum volume. Honeywell provides a stable business foundation with a cash flow dividend, offering investors possible quantum upside while being anchored to a very stable company. The main con is that quantum computing is only a small piece of Honeywell's overall diversified business, which might limit the impact of Quantinuum's success on the overall stock.