Tesla and Elon Just Did The Unthinkable [This Changes Everything]

Tom Nash•Jan 29, 2026

Summary

Tom asserts that Tesla's recent earnings call marks the most important moment in the company's history. He emphasizes that the company is consciously pivoting from 'Business A' (automotive) to 'Business B' (AI, FSD, and Robotics), which will cause short-term margin erosion but long-term dominance. Tom highlights Elon Musk's commitment of $20 billion in capex for 2026 specifically for AI and compute infrastructure, a move he believes creates a monopoly-like advantage.

He discusses the shift in production, noting that the Model S and X will be discontinued in 2026 to make room for full-time Optimus robot production at the Fremont facility. Tom views Tesla's automotive sector now as a 'cash cow' to fund the 'next warp jump' into FSD, energy storage, and robo-taxis. He predicts that the energy business will eventually be double the size of the current automotive business.

Price Predictions mentioned by Tom:

2030 (5-year target): Bear case $1,800; Bull case $4,800.

2035 (10-year target): Bear case $3,750; Bull case $7,900.

Stock Mentions:

TSLA: Tom argues this is the 'next Palantir moment' and emphasizes that Tesla is an AI company, not a car company. He highlights the $20 billion AI investment and the transition of the Fremont factory to produce Optimus robots. Tom sets a massive bull-case price target of $7,900 by 2035.

PLTR: Tom references Palantir to illustrate a company that was previously hated and misunderstood during its strategic pivot in 2022. He notes he has had an 'amazing run' with the stock and uses it as a benchmark for Tesla's current transition phase.

ORCL: Tom mentions Oracle as one of the few companies outside of the major hyperscalers that is committing massive capital to AI. He uses Oracle as a peer example to validate Tesla's heavy spending on AI infrastructure.

Mentioned Stocks

PLTR

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Tom mentions he has had an 'amazing run' with Palantir and compares its 2022 strategic pivot to Tesla's current situation. He views Palantir as a successful example of a company that ignored short-term market pressure to achieve long-term dominance.

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ORCL

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Tom identifies Oracle as a top-tier company alongside Tesla that is willing to commit massive capital resources to AI infrastructure. He groups Oracle with 'hyperscalers' that are creating a significant market advantage through AI compute training.

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TSLA

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Tom describes Tesla as an AI and robotics company currently in a 'warp jump' phase. He cites the $20 billion AI capex, the shift of the Fremont factory to Optimus production, and the massive potential for recurring revenue through FSD and robotics as reasons for his bullishness. He provides a 2035 bull case price target of $7,900.

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