Palantir: A Once in a Lifetime Event is Coming in 2026 (Get Ready)

Tom Nash•Feb 3, 2026

Summary

Tom presents a highly bullish thesis on Palantir following its recent earnings, which he describes as the most fantastic in the company's history. He highlights that the stock's 10-12% drop leading into earnings created a perfect setup by pricing in negative sentiment, allowing the subsequent 'blowout' results to shock the market. Tom emphasizes that Palantir is currently operating with 'video game numbers,' specifically citing a Rule of 40 score between 130 and 140, which is triple what is typically considered excellent in the software industry.

Tom’s market outlook suggests that Palantir is the essential 'foundation layer' for the AI era, making it agnostic to which companies win the 'LLM or hardware wars.' He predicts that the government sector is currently the most misunderstood part of the business, with the potential to grow 10x in the next four years as nations engage in an AI arms race. While acknowledging a high P/E ratio, Tom dismisses it as a secondary metric for a company of this quality, noting that time is the best friend of a good business.

**PLTR (Palantir):** Tom views the company as an unrivaled monopoly with a 70% revenue growth rate and 80% gross margins. He highlights the 140% US commercial growth and 140% net dollar retention as evidence of the software's 'sticky' nature. Tom believes the stock is 10x cheaper than the average tech monopoly and maintains a long-term five-year investment horizon.

**NVDA (Nvidia):** Tom mentions Nvidia as one of the few companies capable of matching Palantir's growth profile, though he suggests it may be 'mellowing down' compared to its peak. He classifies it as a dominant monopoly in the GPU space with a massive market valuation. It serves as a benchmark for the type of monopolistic technology Tom seeks in the market.

**MSFT (Microsoft):** Tom identifies Microsoft as the leader in business software and a major player in cloud computing via Azure. He uses its $3.2 trillion market cap to illustrate the valuation gap between established tech monopolies and Palantir. He considers it part of the elite group of companies that dominate their respective industry stacks.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA

Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Tom compares Palantir's financial performance to Nvidia, calling them the only two companies producing such 'unrealistic' growth numbers. He classifies Nvidia as a monopoly in the GPU sector and includes it in a list of elite tech companies with an average valuation of $3.8 trillion, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for such industry leaders.

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PLTR

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Tom describes Palantir as a 'cheat code' company with a Rule of 40 score of 140 and 80% gross margins. He emphasizes the 140% growth in US commercial revenue and argues the company is a monopoly in AI operating systems. He notes that the stock is effectively 10x cheaper than other tech monopolies based on average market caps and expects the government sector to grow 10x in the next four years.

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