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Tech Stocks Are Crashing - These Are The Stocks I'm Buying

Daniel Pronk•Feb 12, 2026

Summary

Daniel's main thesis is that the market is currently punishing the software sector and hyperscalers due to fears over high capital expenditures and AI disruption, which he believes is misguided. He suggests that for companies undergoing massive investment cycles, investors should focus on operating cash flow and revenue acceleration rather than temporary compression in free cash flow. Daniel highlights that despite the broad market strength, high-conviction stocks are in corrections of 15% to 22%, offering attractive entry points for long-term investors.

Meta (META): Daniel highlights that the stock is in a 15% correction despite stellar Q4 results and projected 30% revenue acceleration. He emphasizes that operating cash flow is at an all-time high of $116 billion, proving that AI investments in Reels and recommendation engines are yielding high returns. Daniel views the current price as a value opportunity, noting that even with pessimistic estimates, the stock could produce an 18% CAGR over five years.
Mercado Libre (MELI): The stock is in a 22% correction, trading around $2,000, which Daniel considers a significant value play. He points out that the company is growing revenue at a 'ridiculous' 40% annually and is the top-downloaded shopping app in Brazil. Daniel expects margins to expand in 2026 as the company raises shipping fees after successfully capturing market share; he calculates a fair value of $3,227 per share.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) & Brookfield Corporation (BN): Daniel discusses both, noting that BAM is an income-focused stock with a 4% dividend, while BN is his preferred growth-focused holding. He argues that Brookfield is perfectly positioned to benefit from the AI infrastructure build-out, specifically the massive demand for power and data centers. He projects a 20% annual earnings growth for BAM with a fair value of $72, and a 22% CAGR for BN with a fair value of $75.
Constellation Software (CSU): Daniel is 'shocked' by the weakness in this stock, which is trading for below 15 times free cash flow. He argues the company is not disruptable by AI but is actually a benefactor, recently launching 'Stella AI' to enhance its proprietary data services. Daniel believes the underlying fundamentals are the best they have ever been and calculates a fair value of $4,100 per share.
Topicus (TOI): As a smaller European subsidiary of Constellation, Topicus follows the same successful playbook and recently won a major cybersecurity contract with the Dutch government. Daniel notes that the stock is being sold off indiscriminately with the rest of the software sector despite 20% free cash flow growth. He calculates a fair value of $161 CAD, suggesting the stock is significantly undervalued.

Mentioned Stocks

META
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel recently purchased more shares after Q4 results. He cites 30% revenue growth acceleration, record operating cash flows of $116B, and AI-driven engagement in Reels as key drivers. He sees a 15% correction as a buying opportunity with a target CAGR of 18%.

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BN
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel holds BN in his personal portfolio for its higher growth potential (20-25% distributable earnings growth). He believes it is cheaper than BAM and projects a 22% CAGR with a fair value of $75.

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CSU
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel is buying the dip, noting the stock trades at an 'unjustifiably low' 15x free cash flow. He argues the company will benefit from AI via its new Stella AI agent and proprietary data. His DCF fair value is $4,100.

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BAM
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel has been buying this for his mother's retirement account due to its 4% dividend and 20% annual earnings growth outlook. He highlights their leadership in AI energy infrastructure and calculates a fair value of $72.

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TOI
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel is adding to his position as the stock falls with the software sector. He cites a major new cybersecurity contract with the Dutch government and a 20% FCF growth rate. He calculates a fair value of $161 CAD.

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MELI
Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Daniel is actively buying in this 22% correction. He points to 40% annual revenue growth and dominant market share in Brazil. He predicts a fair value of $3,227, representing 59% upside from current prices around $2,000.

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