The US Iran Conflict Will Make (Smart) Investors Rich

Tom Nash•Feb 27, 2026

Summary

Tom addresses the rising tensions between the US and Iran, advising viewers to ignore the 'noise' of short-term trading and focus on second-order effects that build generational wealth over 5-10 years. He warns against moving to cash, noting that inflation will erode purchasing power by approximately 45% over a decade, whereas the S&P 500 historically returns 10% annually despite global crises. History indicates that wars typically cause a market dip lasting about 35 days, with an average initial drop of 6.4%, followed by a 9% gain over the subsequent 12 months.

Tom argues that the best strategy is to avoid gambling on volatile commodities like oil and instead focus on technology companies that see temporary price drops due to panic but possess solid long-term fundamentals. He emphasizes a system of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into quality assets during times of chaos rather than trying to time the market perfectly.

PLTR: Tom identifies Palantir as a 'unicorn' stock because it uniquely benefits from both defense spending (50% of business) and the AI/tech boom (50% of business). He highlights its outperformance during geopolitical chaos and argues that its high valuation is a hallmark of premium growth stocks. He suggests investors should double down and use dollar-cost averaging for this specific ticker as it rises in times of uncertainty.

NVDA: Tom uses Nvidia as a primary example of a tech giant that reacts negatively to war news initially but rebounds strongly. He notes that the stock dropped significantly after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine before skyrocketing, providing a massive buying opportunity. He views this as the superior play compared to commodities because of the underlying tech fundamentals.

GOOGL: Alphabet is cited as another high-quality tech stock that follows the pattern of an initial dip followed by a massive long-term recovery. Tom points out that it rose significantly after the initial shock of recent geopolitical conflicts. He recommends using market panic to lower the cost basis on such dominant technology leaders.

LMT: Lockheed Martin is mentioned as a viable alternative for those specifically seeking defense exposure with solid fundamentals. It has outperformed the S&P 500 in certain windows, such as the 64% return since 2022 mentioned by Tom. However, he considers it a secondary option to high-growth tech stocks that offer better long-term appreciation.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Tom views Nvidia as a prime example of a quality stock that investors should buy when panic-selling occurs during war-related dips. He notes its massive recovery following the 2022 invasion as proof that tech fundamentals eventually outweigh geopolitical fear.

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PLTR

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Tom calls Palantir a 'unicorn' because it bridges the gap between a defense stock and a high-growth AI tech stock. He highlights that it thrives during chaos and geopolitical uncertainty, making it the perfect candidate for a long-term DCA strategy despite its high PE ratio.

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GOOGL

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Like other big tech firms, Tom points out that Google rebounded over 130% after initial geopolitical shocks. He recommends buying these 'weighing machine' stocks during 'voting machine' panic events.

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LMT

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Tom acknowledges that Lockheed Martin has solid fundamentals and can be a good addition to a portfolio, outperforming oil significantly. However, he views it as a slower-growing option compared to the upside found in technology leaders.

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