War, Tariffs, Inflation: My Move Right Now

BWB - Business With Brian•Mar 8, 2026

Summary

The main thesis presented by Brian is that while a major legal ruling has struck down a significant portion of the IEEPA-based tariffs, the trade war is far from over due to the immediate implementation of replacement tariffs under the Trade Act of 1974. He warns that the market's initial optimism was tempered by the realization that uncertainty remains, as evidenced by a subsequent 800-point drop in the Dow. Brian highlights a potential $175 billion refund liability for the government, which could increase federal deficits and pressure Treasury yields, negatively impacting bond holdings like TLT.

His market outlook suggests a period of normalization following current volatility. He advises staying disciplined and avoiding emotional trading. He specifically recommends overweighting sectors that benefit from lower import costs, such as consumer discretionary, while underweighting domestic industries that relied on the now-defunct tariff layers for competitive advantages. He also emphasizes holding precious metals as a hedge against ongoing policy uncertainty.

Target (TGT): Brian identifies Target as one of the biggest winners due to its heavy reliance on imports, with roughly 30% of its merchandise coming from countries previously hit hard by these tariffs. He notes that the removal of IEEPA tariffs provides significant margin relief even with a new 15% global tariff in place. He advises watching for potential catalysts related to court-ordered refunds, though he notes this process could take months to play out.

Apple (AAPL): Brian describes Apple as the poster child for tariff exposure because it manufactures the majority of its hardware in China. While the ruling provides a cost-structure tailwind, he cautions that Section 301 tariffs on China remain in place, meaning the company is not yet fully free and clear. He views the reduction in general trade friction as a positive step for Apple's global supply chain.

Ford (F) & General Motors (GM): Brian argues that the auto sector sees a massive benefit from the ruling, estimating a margin relief of approximately $2,000 per vehicle assembled in the U.S. This could lead to a $2 billion to $4 billion financial swing for each company, which is significant given their thinner margins. He suggests monitoring whether the 15% replacement tariff will eventually include specific carve-outs for the automotive industry.

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) & US Steel (X): Brian categorizes domestic steel names as losers in this scenario because they lose the additional layer of protection provided by IEEPA tariffs. He explains that cheaper foreign imports will now put immediate pressure on domestic pricing and demand. He warns that these stocks have historically dropped 25% to 50% during trade-war unwinds and recommends watching for spikes in import volumes over the next 90 days.

Kootenay Silver (KOOYF): Brian highlights this silver exploration company as a high-potential investment with a massive resource base of 223 million ounces. He mentions that analysts have set mid-2025 price targets of $2.70 to $2.80 Canadian for the stock. He notes the company is currently trading around $1.42 USD, suggesting significant room for growth according to analyst projections.