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SCHD Will Never Be the Same After This

Summary

Brian explains that the highly popular SCHD ETF, which manages nearly $100 billion, recently underwent a significant reconstitution, removing 22 stocks and replacing them with 25 new ones. He highlights that the removed stocks were up an average of 6.7% this year, while the newly added stocks were down an average of 9.4%, representing a 16 percentage point swing. This counterintuitive move is not due to company failures or dividend issues but an inherent part of SCHD's rules-based investment strategy.

SCHD tracks the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index, which has no human portfolio manager. Annually, the index re-evaluates its holdings based on a strict formula. To qualify, a company must have paid dividends for at least 10 consecutive years. Companies are then scored on four metrics: return on equity, cash flow relative to debt, current dividend yield, and five-year dividend growth rate. Only the top 100 companies make the cut.

Brian illustrates this with the example of energy stocks. Last year, SCHD significantly increased its energy exposure, which paid off as the sector surged. However, due to their strong performance, energy stock prices rose, which, in turn, *lowered* their dividend yields (as dividend payout is a set dollar amount). This reduced their quality scores, leading to their removal despite being "winners." Brian clarifies that this isn't panic selling but the system working as designed.

Brian illustrates this with specific stock examples affected by the fund's methodology:

**Valero (VLO)**: This energy stock was removed from SCHD despite being up over 45% this year. Brian explains that Valero's strong stock performance led to a decrease in its dividend yield, which consequently lowered its quality score according to SCHD's index-driven rules, triggering its automatic removal from the fund during the reconstitution process. This highlights how the fund's system prioritizes quality metrics over recent market gains.
**United Health (UNH)**: United Health was one of the largest additions to SCHD by market cap. Brian notes that this occurred despite the stock being down over 17% this year, indicating that the fund's methodology values a company's fundamental quality scores more than its short-term stock performance when making inclusion decisions.
**Conoco Phillips (COP) and Chevron (CVX)**: These major energy companies remain among SCHD's top five holdings even after the recent sector rebalancing. Brian points to their continued presence as evidence that the fund did not abandon energy entirely but rather retained what it considers the "highest quality" names in the sector whose fundamental scores remained strong enough to meet the index's strict criteria.
**Devon Energy (DVN)**: Brian mentions that Devon Energy was newly added to SCHD's portfolio during this reconstitution, and notably, it is up over 27% this year. This inclusion further supports Brian's point that the fund selectively adds quality energy names that meet its scoring criteria, even while shedding others that no longer qualify based on their metrics.

Brian addresses two distinct audiences:

**For those on the sidelines considering buying SCHD**: Brian points out that the 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.39% (risk-free), while SCHD yields about 3.5%. Given the projected single Fed rate cut this year and persistent inflation/oil crisis, treasuries offer a better short-term, risk-free return. The math, he argues, does not favor deploying new capital into SCHD over treasuries in the current environment.
**For existing SCHD owners**: Brian frames SCHD as more than just a yield play, emphasizing its long-term total return. Over the last 10 years, SCHD returned over 232% (with reinvested dividends), compared to the S&P 500's 272%. He demonstrates that a $100,000 investment a decade ago would now be worth $332,000, generating over $11,000 annually in dividends without additional contributions. This compounding growth is a key benefit absent in bonds. He assures existing holders that the reconstitution is the fund's methodology adapting to market conditions and positioning for future recovery, especially if energy corrects and the broader market stabilizes. The discipline of selling lower-scoring quality stocks and replacing them with higher-scoring ones is what keeps the fund relevant long-term.

Mentioned Stocks

CVX
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Chevron remains one of SCHD's top five holdings. Brian highlights this to show that SCHD maintained its highest-quality energy sector exposures rather than completely divesting from the sector.

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UNH
Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: United Health was one of the largest additions to SCHD by market cap despite being down over 17% this year. Brian implies it was added because it scored higher on the fund's quality metrics, demonstrating that the fund prioritizes fundamental quality over recent poor stock performance.

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SCHD
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Brian explains that SCHD recently underwent a significant reconstitution, removing 22 stocks and adding 25, including energy stocks that performed exceptionally well but saw their dividend yields decrease, thus lowering their quality scores according to the fund's rules-based methodology. For existing investors, Brian views this reconstitution as the fund's disciplined system working as designed, adapting to market conditions and positioning for long-term total returns. He highlights SCHD's impressive 232% return over the last decade with reinvested dividends, demonstrating its compounding power, which bonds cannot offer. Therefore, he advises existing holders that the fund's discipline will serve them well long-term. However, for potential new investors, he notes that the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.39% currently offers a higher risk-free return compared to SCHD's 3.5% yield, making treasuries more attractive for new capital deployment in the short term given current economic conditions and projected slow Fed rate cuts.

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VLO
Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Valero was removed from SCHD despite being up over 45% this year. Brian explains that its strong stock performance led to a decrease in its dividend yield, which negatively impacted its quality score according to SCHD's rules-based index methodology, thus leading to its automatic removal from the fund during reconstitution.

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COP
Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: ConocoPhillips remains one of SCHD's top five holdings even after the recent reconstitution. Brian mentions this as an example that the fund did not abandon energy entirely but retained "highest quality" energy names whose scores remained strong.

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DVN
Sentiment: BUY

Reasoning: Devon Energy was newly added to SCHD's portfolio during the reconstitution and is up over 27% this year. Brian uses this as further evidence that the fund retained or added quality energy names that met its scoring criteria, even while shedding others.

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