I Just Bought $7,000 of This New Stock - What I'm Buying Now
Summary
Daniel opens by acknowledging the market's recent volatility due to global events but shifts focus to identifying high-quality, undervalued stocks he has been adding to his portfolio. He emphasizes a long-term investment approach.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Daniel views Microsoft as undervalued, despite a 32% correction from its all-time highs, attributing the negative sentiment to concerns about OpenAI concentration, CapEx, AI disruption, and Copilot adoption. However, he argues that Microsoft's cloud business is strong even without OpenAI, with non-OpenAI remaining performance obligations up 28% year-over-year and demand exceeding capacity. He highlights Microsoft's successful pivot of Copilot to an "agentic layer" that is agent-agnostic, reducing reliance on a single AI model. The company has shown increasing efficiencies, flat employee growth with scaling revenue, and a 14-year high in operating cash flow margin (52.6%). Its price to operating cash flow is 17.2x, significantly below its historical average of 24.7x. His pessimistic DCF assumptions (12% annual operating cash flow growth, 17x P/OCF) project a fair value of $422 per share and a future stock price of $658, indicating a 13% compounded annual growth rate over five years. He has not taken a position recently as he is focused on other portfolio holdings.
Reasoning: Daniel recently added Mastercard to his portfolio, noting its 18% correction from all-time highs and flat share price returns since March 2024. He highlights that despite this, the underlying fundamentals, including revenues and earnings per share (EPS), have continued to accelerate, while its price multiples have contracted to historical lows. Q4 2025 results showed strong 18% revenue growth (15% currency neutral) and 25% EPS growth, driven significantly by international markets, particularly Latin America through partnerships like Nubank. Its value-added services (VAS), which include cybersecurity, data analytics, and advertising, grew by 26% in Q4 and are diversifying its revenue streams, making it more like a tech company. Mastercard is expected to achieve 12-13% revenue growth in 2026 and has a perfect history of beating guidance. EPS has compounded by 18% since 2017 due to margin expansion and share buybacks. The stock's current P/E ratio is 29.8x, well below its historical average of 35.8x, and its forward P/E of 25.6x is near historical bottoms. Daniel's pessimistic DCF projections, assuming 12% annual earnings growth and a 30x P/E, suggest a fair value of $623 per share and a future stock price of $981, indicating a 15% compounded annual growth rate over five years.
Reasoning: Daniel, who previously sold BAM in October 2024, is now seriously considering adding it back due to its attractive valuation, having corrected over 20% from its highs. He notes BAM's accelerating growth, with projections of over 20% growth in 2026, and an attractive dividend yield of over 4.6% with projected 15%+ annual dividend growth, currently at an all-time high. He refutes general fears in the private equity sector, emphasizing that Brookfield invests in stable real assets (e.g., pipelines, renewables) rather than speculative software companies, and its realized fund returns are verifiable, attracting repeat investors. Q4 2025 was a record quarter for fundraising ($35 billion) and asset monetizations, driven by high demand for its real assets. Brookfield increased its earnings outlook to 20% annually over the next five years. The stock trades at 23.6x forward earnings, which is historically low. A pessimistic DCF, using prior 15% annual growth projections and a 25x P/E, indicates a 16.7% compounded annual growth rate (including dividends) over five years, with a fair value of approximately $60 US and a future price of $82.
Reasoning: Mercado Libre is down roughly 34% from its highs, a weakness Daniel attributes to significant ongoing investments across Latin America ($3.4 billion in Argentina, $11+ billion in Brazil for distribution centers and fintech expansion). As a "bull," Daniel views these investments not as defensive reactions to competition, but as strategic moves to expand market dominance and leadership, sacrificing short-term margins for long-term profit potential and moat building. He acknowledges that short-term market drama and weakness may persist until these investments slow and margins re-expand, but he maintains a long-term investment perspective that prioritizes future growth over immediate quarterly results.