I Called An AI Bubble Already in 2024...(Still Call it a BUBBLE, Now it is the CRAZIEST One Ever)

Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.•Jun 17, 2026

Summary

Sven revisits his 2022 prediction about an "AI bubble," admitting he was "dead wrong" as the market, particularly Nvidia, continued to surge. Nvidia saw a 26-27% annual return since his call, growing from $130 to $209. He highlights that his value-investing model portfolio, which he actively manages by adding $250 monthly, achieved a comparable 27% annual return during the same period, slightly outperforming Nvidia. This success reinforces his core message: value investing, based on fundamentals, business ownership, equity growth, dividends, and buybacks at the right price, works "no matter what happens."

He firmly reiterates his belief that the current market constitutes an even "bigger bubble" than two years ago, pointing to the rapid equity issuance and high valuations in the AI space. He draws parallels to the 1999 dot-com bubble, noting the current environment of numerous huge IPOs and significant global debt issuance from AI players. He advises against focusing on shorting or betting against bubbles, instead advocating for staying disciplined with one's own proven strategy. He foresees a potential bubble pop soon and hopes investors are protected.

Sven discusses several companies in the context of his market outlook:

**Nvidia:** Sven called Nvidia a bubble two years ago, highlighting that the industry spent 17 times more on its chips than the revenue they generated, which he deemed "crazy." Despite his initial call being "dead wrong" in the short term, as Nvidia grew from $130 to $209 (26-27% per year), he still sees the broader AI market as an excessive bubble, implying continued concerns about Nvidia's valuation as part of this trend.

**Cadence Design:** Mentioned alongside Nvidia in his two-year-old "AI bubble" video, Sven noted its performance since then, growing from $310 to $390. While this growth was less spectacular compared to Nvidia, it was part of the sector he was generally warning about regarding overvaluation and speculative behavior.

**Tesla:** Sven made a historical observation about Tesla, noting that two years ago it had done "much better" but was also "50% down compared to the previous bubbish peaks" at that time. This serves as a past reference point within his broader discussion on market volatility and bubbles, without offering a current sentiment.

**Glencore:** Sven, identifying as a specialist in copper, applies a value investing strategy by buying copper miners when the copper market is in a downturn. He explicitly states he "made some money on Glenor over the last year" through this approach, showcasing the profitability of his disciplined, fundamental-driven investment decisions.

**SpaceX:** Sven considers SpaceX "the biggest bubble of our lifetimes," having observed a 50% surge in its valuation just five days after he issued this warning. He views its valuation, which has surpassed Amazon despite Amazon's 10x greater investment in similar areas, robust ecosystem, and profitability, as a clear sign of extreme overpricing and a "pure gamble." He explicitly states he will not invest in SpaceX, whether by buying shares or shorting it, preferring to avoid such speculative assets.

**Google, Microsoft, Meta:** Sven groups these major tech companies as examples of the current market bubble, stating that "equity is given away so lightly" in their valuations. He believes this indicates they are "hugely overpriced" and symptomatic of a market experiencing irrational exuberance, drawing a parallel to the speculative environment of the 1999 dot-com bubble.

Mentioned Stocks

NVDA

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Two years ago, Sven called Nvidia a bubble, noting the industry spent 17 times more on its chips than they got revenue, which he found "crazy." Despite its subsequent growth from $130 to $209 (26-27% per year), he still views the broader AI market as an even bigger bubble, implying continued concerns about Nvidia's valuation.

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CDNS

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Cadence Design was mentioned in Sven's two-year-old video calling the AI bubble. While its growth from $310 to $390 was less pronounced than Nvidia's, it was part of the sector he was warning about as being overvalued and subject to speculative behavior.

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