The Smart Money Just Made Some Big Moves

Fin Tek•Mar 10, 2026

Summary

Kuran analyzes the latest 13F filings, which disclose the trades of top long-term investors, to understand their strategies amidst current stock market volatility and global political shifts. He categorizes their approaches into rotation, doubling down on tech, value investing, hedging, and building dry powder.

Bill Ackman, of Pershing Square, employs a 'rotation' strategy, shifting his tech holdings based on value.

**Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG):** Ackman significantly reduced his stake in Google's parent company, Alphabet, for both Class A and Class C shares. This was a a major reduction on a stock that had appreciated by about 75% in the past year. Ackman's move signals a value-based decision rather than a pure technology play, suggesting he saw better opportunities elsewhere after its strong run.

**Meta (META):** Ackman initiated a new position in Meta, believing its platforms, Instagram and Facebook, are poised to be clear beneficiaries of artificial intelligence integration. This decision aligns with his strategy of rotating into companies he perceives as having better future value within the tech sector.

**Amazon (AMZN):** Ackman heavily increased his holdings in Amazon, boosting his total investment to around $2 billion. He views the stock's volatility, influenced by tariff headlines, as an opportunity to acquire shares cheaply for his 5-plus year investment horizon, demonstrating his long-term value perspective.

Masayoshi Son of SoftBank is characterized as 'doubling down' on technology, particularly AI and crypto, with a high-risk, high-reward approach.

**Ab Cellera (ABCL), Uber (UBER), Circle Internet Group (CIRCLE), eToro (ETORO), 21 Capital (21 CAPITAL):** Son made small additions to Ab Cellera, Uber, Circle Internet Group, and eToro, along with a significant investment in 21 Capital. These moves reflect his broader strategy of making big, speculative bets on future-oriented technologies and high-growth sectors. SoftBank's past success with Uber, where an initial $48 billion investment is now worth more than three times as much, underscores his conviction in these high-upside ventures.

**Nvidia (NVDA):** Son sold his entire Nvidia position, amounting to a $3.5 billion sale. This move is interesting because it fundamentally bets against the market's prevailing expectation of sustained growth in AI infrastructure, despite SoftBank's overall focus on AI.

**T-Mobile (TMUS):** Son trimmed his T-Mobile holdings by $3 billion. This decision aligns with his pattern of making strategic adjustments within his portfolio, often involving counter-intuitive moves relative to broader market sentiment.

**Coinbase (COIN):** Although not explicitly a new purchase, Kuran discusses Son's overall bet in the crypto space, including investments in Circle (a stablecoin company). This strategy, focused on the growth of USDC and its use in transactions, implies a positive outlook for the wider crypto ecosystem, of which Coinbase is a major player.

Monish Pabrai, a value investor influenced by Warren Buffett, focuses on 'undervalued, boring companies' and 'second-order effects' of market trends.

**AMR (AMR):** Pabrai is investing in AMR, a small coal mining stock that is currently off its highs. The company's leadership is actively buying back shares, it maintains a significant cash reserve, and Investing Pro rates it as 30% undervalued. AMR focuses on metallurgical coal, which is crucial for steel production and stands to benefit from increasing industrial demand.

**Warrior Met Coal (HCC):** Pabrai holds $158 million in Warrior Met Coal, another small metallurgical coal company. Despite the unglamorous and capital-intensive nature of the business, its financial metrics appear solid, fitting Pabrai's approach of finding value in industries often overlooked or disliked by the broader market.

**Transocean Ltd (RIG):** Pabrai is significantly increasing his holdings in Transocean Ltd, a $7 billion offshore drilling company. This investment is predicated on the expectation of continuously rising global energy demand, especially from China, and the substantial energy requirements for the ongoing build-out of AI infrastructure, making the energy sector an attractive deal.

**Valaris (VAL):** While Pabrai still holds Valaris, another offshore oil company, he notably sold approximately half of his shares last quarter. This mixed action suggests a nuanced view, maintaining some exposure while potentially reducing risk or reallocating capital within the cyclical offshore drilling sector.

**Noble Corporation (NE):** Pabrai completely sold his shares in Noble Corporation, an offshore drilling contractor, as part of his portfolio adjustments. This move highlights his selective approach to managing positions within cyclical industries, trimming those that no longer meet his value criteria.

Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 housing crisis, adopted a 'hedging' strategy through a barbell portfolio, betting against overvalued sectors while finding value in others.

**Nvidia (NVDA):** Burry placed significant put options against Nvidia, reflecting a bearish bet on the AI giant's potential decline. He firmly believes the AI market is currently experiencing a bubble, making these puts a high-risk, high-reward wager against sustained growth.

**Palantir (PLTR):** Burry also held significant put options against Palantir, further evidencing his conviction that the AI market is in a bubble. The stock's price had already declined substantially from his entry point, suggesting the potential for profit on this bearish bet.

**Halliburton (HAL):** Burry held call options on the oil giant Halliburton, indicating a bullish outlook. This constitutes a safer bet within his barbell strategy, anticipating that Halliburton will benefit from rising global energy demand.

**Pfizer (PFE):** Burry held call options on the pharma company Pfizer, positioning it as a defensive play in an uncertain market environment. Pfizer's explicit lack of direct involvement in the AI space makes it an attractive, non-speculative component of his balanced portfolio.

**Lululemon (LULU), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Bruker (BRKR):** Burry also held call options on Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and Bruker, a maker of scientific research instruments. These smaller, potentially undervalued companies represent the 'safer bet' side of his barbell strategy, chosen for their inherent value rather than speculative growth.

Warren Buffett, in his final period as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, continued a strategy of 'building dry powder' while making targeted, long-term value investments.

**The New York Times (NYT):** Berkshire made a new investment of $350 million in The New York Times. Kuran identifies this as a classic Buffett bet on a strong, enduring brand that has demonstrated a significant return to growth, achieving record high annual revenues and making successful business pivots, such as its gaming division (e.g., Wordle).

**Apple (AAPL):** Berkshire Hathaway sold 4% of its shares in Apple. This reduction, though partial, indicates a strategic adjustment within their portfolio, potentially locking in profits after Apple's substantial appreciation.

**Bank of America (BAC):** Berkshire Hathaway also sold some shares in Bank of America. This aligns with the overall trend of Berkshire being a net seller of stocks during this period, selectively trimming positions.

**Amazon (AMZN):** Berkshire Hathaway executed a significant reduction, selling 77% of its Amazon holdings. This substantial divestment contributes to Berkshire's strategy of accumulating a large cash pile and being a net seller of stocks.

**Chubb (CB), Chevron (CVX), Domino's (DPZ), Lamar Advertising (LAMR):** Berkshire continued adding to its holdings in Chubb Insurance, Chevron, Domino's, and Lamar Advertising. These sustained investments reflect a continued positive outlook on these companies, fitting Buffett's preference for understandable businesses with durable competitive advantages.

**Japanese Trading Houses (ITOCHU, MARUBENI, MITSUBISHI, MITSUI, SUMITOMO):** Buffett and Greg Abel have explicitly stated their intention to hold their investments in the five largest Japanese trading houses for the very long term, potentially for at least the next 50 years. This highlights a foundational, generational commitment to these global conglomerates, reflecting a long-term value perspective outside the immediate US market.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Berkshire Hathaway sold 77% of their Amazon holdings. This significant reduction aligns with Berkshire's overall strategy of being a net seller of stocks and building dry powder.

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