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Marvell Forecasting Booming Sales for Custom Chips | MRVL Stock Deep Dive Part 4

Parkev Tatevosian, CFAJun 16, 2026

Summary

Parkev's analysis focuses on Marvell Technology's custom design program, specifically its XPU (accelerator) segment. He highlights that the management team expects revenue from this segment to grow by 20% in fiscal year 2027 and then more than double in fiscal year 2028. This rapid acceleration is attributed to the unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure and the strategic shift of large tech companies (hyperscalers) toward custom silicon.

The broader market outlook remains extremely bullish as AI continues to provide fundamental value to enterprises through productivity gains and automation. Parkev notes a recurring trend where AI-related companies provide high projections that are initially met with skepticism, only to be revised even higher a few months later. He emphasizes that the investment in AI is justified because the value created for enterprises exceeds the cost of the investment.

Marvell (MRVL): Parkev explains that Marvell is benefiting from hyperscalers wanting to diversify away from Nvidia to reduce price dependence and secure supply. He mentions that the company has over 10 custom design programs reaching high production volumes, with a long-term revenue target for the custom business of over $10 billion by fiscal year 2029. This $10 billion figure is so significant relative to the company's current size that it surprised Wall Street analysts during the earnings call.

Mentioned Stocks

MRVL
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Parkev is highly optimistic about Marvell due to the explosive growth in its custom XPU program. He notes that revenue is expected to double in fiscal year 2028 and management has set a massive $10 billion revenue target for the custom business by fiscal year 2029. He sees Marvell as a key alternative for hyperscalers looking to move away from total Nvidia dependence.

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