Down 36% in 2026, Is SoFi Stock Undervalued? | SOFI Stock Analysis

Parkev provides an in-depth analysis of SoFi stock, addressing investor disappointment over its 36% year-to-date decline in 2026. He revisits his past ratings, noting he warned investors when SoFi approached $30 per share in late 2025 that it was too expensive, but upgraded it to a buy when it fell to around $18 per share. He explains a significant update to his valuation model, lowering the 'beta' (riskiness) of SoFi's business in relation to the S&P 500.

This adjustment stems primarily from recent positive developments in the U.S. economy, specifically a 'hotter than expected' jobs report and stronger overall economic activity. Parkev emphasizes that a robust economy is crucial for SoFi, given its substantial personal loan portfolio. A strong job market reduces the risk of loan defaults, directly benefiting SoFi. He also points to the boom in artificial intelligence spending as a major economic uplift, counteracting headwinds like tariffs and the war in Iran. This reduced risk expectation increased his intrinsic value calculation for SoFi from $16 to $19 per share, which is now above the current market price of $16.67. He also highlights that SoFi is trading at its cheapest forward price-to-earnings ratio since January 2024.

Regarding interest rates, Parkev challenges the common expectation that lower rates would benefit SoFi. He argues that the U.S. economy, experiencing rising inflation (4.2% recently, well above the 2% target) and strong growth, actually needs stable or even higher interest rates, not cuts. He attributes current inflation to past government stimulus. For SoFi, a strong economy with people employed is more vital than low interest rates. Furthermore, higher interest rates attract third-party lenders to SoFi's platform, as they can earn attractive returns (e.g., 12-18%) on personal loans to SoFi's higher-quality customers, a business segment that is currently booming.