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MELI Stock is Crashing - Here's Everything You Need to Know

Daniel PronkMay 8, 2026

Summary

Daniel provides a comprehensive analysis of Mercado Libre's (MELI) Q1 earnings, noting that while the stock fell significantly, the fundamental business performance was exceptionally strong. Revenue grew 49% year-over-year to $8.8 billion, driven by massive acceleration in Brazil and Mexico. The primary concern for the market was the decline in operating margins to 6.9%, which Daniel explains is a deliberate strategic choice by management to prioritize long-term market share over short-term profitability.

He addresses the bear case regarding the fintech segment, specifically the declining net interest margins after losses. While Mercado Libre is expanding its credit portfolio into riskier segments and lowering interest rates to entice users, Daniel highlights that non-performing loans (NPLs) actually decreased year-over-year. This suggests that their data-driven underwriting models are outperforming traditional banks, particularly in volatile markets like Argentina.

Mercado Libre (MELI): Daniel views the company as a "one of one" business that has maintained over 30% growth for 29 consecutive quarters. He calculates that the stock is currently trading at approximately 12 times its underlying free cash flow potential, which he estimates at $6.8 billion if the company were not reinvesting so aggressively. He predicts that MELI has the potential to become Latin America's first trillion-dollar company over the next decade, citing its 73% growth in advertising revenue and its expanding ecosystem flywheel as key drivers.

Mentioned Stocks

MELI
Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Daniel believes the stock is very undervalued, trading at 12 times its underlying free cash flow potential. He emphasizes the 49% revenue growth acceleration and the fact that non-performing loans are decreasing even as the credit portfolio doubles. He maintains a long-term thesis that the company will eventually realize massive profits and could become a trillion-dollar business in the coming decades.

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