How Smart Investors Will Use The Iran War Panic To Get Rich

Tom Nash•Apr 16, 2026

Summary

Tom’s main thesis is that market uncertainty, particularly during times of war and geopolitical tension, should be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to flee. He utilizes historical market data to show that while the first 30 days of a war often involve a sell-off due to uncertainty, the market tends to recover and reach new highs over the following 12 months. He dismisses the fear that rising oil prices cause permanent inflation, attributing inflation instead to government money printing. Tom emphasizes a long-term investing horizon of at least 10 years, noting that 95% of ten-year periods in market history have yielded positive returns.

He highlights that the S&P 500 has become more attractive recently as its forward P/E ratio dropped from 26 to 20, even without a significant drop in index points. Tom advocates for a 'Dollar Cost Averaging' (DCA) strategy to prepare for potential further drawdowns, suggesting that investors should hold cash on the sidelines to 'double down' if prices fall further. He warns against trying to time the absolute bottom and instead encourages building positions in high-conviction stocks or broad market ETFs during periods of 'extreme fear.'

S&P 500 (Index): Tom views the broad market index as a core investment, noting that an entry point at a forward P/E of 20 historically results in an average annual return of 10% over the next decade. He mentions that even in 'lost decades,' the index eventually provides substantial returns. He recommends the index for those who do not want to manage individual stock risks.

Palantir (PLTR): Tom cites Palantir as a success story of his previous recommendations, specifically highlighting the $6 price level as a massive opportunity. He uses it to illustrate the necessity of having the conviction to hold through 70% drawdowns. He views it as a prime example of buying a 'small piglet' before it grows into a 'big fat pig.'

Microsoft (MSFT) & Amazon (AMZN): Tom uses these companies as historical examples of why investors should buy during crises. He notes that Microsoft was available for $15 and Amazon for under $2 during the 2009 financial crisis. He argues that these quality companies represent the types of assets that create generational wealth when purchased during periods of peak market fear.