How I'm Investing With The Market at All Time Highs

Daniel Pronk•May 27, 2026

Summary

Daniel provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market climate, which he believes is becoming dangerously euphoric. He observes that in many sectors, investors have abandoned valuation metrics in favor of exciting narratives, leading to stock price increases of 100% to 500% that are detached from reality. Daniel, identifying as a fundamentals-focused value investor, expresses concern that the market is being driven higher by a narrow group of AI-related stocks while high-quality compounders are being left behind.

Daniel specifically critiques the upcoming SpaceX IPO and several momentum stocks:

SpaceX: Daniel analyzes the S-1 filing and finds the projected $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion valuation unjustifiable, noting it represents 105 times 2025 sales. While Starlink is a high-margin profit driver, the AI and space segments are losing billions, and Daniel believes the $28.5 trillion total addressable market claim is primarily marketing hype. He states he will not participate in the IPO at these levels, suggesting the price would need to be 80% lower to be attractive.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Daniel points out that this stock has rallied 5,300% to a $50 billion market cap despite producing only $60 million to $80 million in annualized revenue. He warns that the company has a price-to-sales ratio of 592 and relies heavily on shareholder dilution to fund operations. Daniel argues that even if the business succeeds, the current price forces investors to pay for decades of future growth upfront, creating massive risk.

MasterCard (MA): Daniel highlights that while many investors are selling MasterCard to chase AI gains, he is becoming increasingly interested in the stock. He notes that the underlying fundamentals remain excellent with 60% operating margins, yet the stock is trading at its lowest forward P/E ratio since 2018. Daniel views the current price stagnation as a buying opportunity for long-term investors who value compounding earnings over short-term price momentum.

Mentioned Stocks

AMZN

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Daniel is bullish on Amazon's LEO (Low Earth Orbit) program because Starlink's financials prove that the margins for satellite connectivity are high and the growth is strong.

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Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Daniel believes the stock is attractive because its forward P/E is at its lowest level since 2018. While the price has lagged the S&P 500, the underlying business fundamentals, including 60% operating margins, remain world-class.

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SPACEX

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Daniel views the projected $1.75T to $2T IPO valuation as unjustifiable, as it would represent over 100x sales. He notes that the company lost $5 billion in 2025 and that segments like AI and space are underperforming despite the hype.

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AMAT

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Daniel notes that the stock is trading at a 42 P/E despite revenue growth only averaging 3.5% annually since 2022. He believes the price has become detached from underlying fundamentals.

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ASTS

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Daniel argues the $50B market cap is too high for a company doing only $60M-$80M in revenue. He warns about the P/S ratio of 592 and the company's reliance on constant dilution and debt to fund negative free cash flow.

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AGX

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Daniel highlights the stock's vertical move to a 60 forward P/E despite the business being highly cyclical and revenue showing no growth for several quarters.

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