The SpaceX IPO Has a Massive Catch

BWB - Business With Brian•Jun 10, 2026

Summary

Brian discusses the imminent SpaceX IPO, highlighting its staggering $1.75 trillion valuation, which he notes is double the combined value of Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Disney, Nike, and Starbucks. He explains how SpaceX will be pulled into Nasdaq 100 and total market funds (like QQQ and VTI) due to rewritten rules, leading to billions in forced buying, but clarifies that S&P 500 funds are exempt as SpaceX is not yet profitable. Brian dismisses fears of a market crash from this forced buying, stating the total amount (8-12 billion dollars) is a mere "rounding error" compared to the $75 trillion US stock market. He also debunks the idea that smaller Nasdaq 100 companies will be immediately pushed out, though he warns of the annual December reshuffle. Critically, Brian reveals that SpaceX now includes Elon Musk's AI business, xAI, generating nearly $2 billion monthly from data center rentals to companies like Google and Anthropic, making it a more diverse entity than just rockets.

Regarding specific stocks:

**SpaceX:** Brian expresses significant concern over its valuation, citing a $1.75 trillion price tag against less than $19 billion in revenue, resulting in a 95 times sales multiple. He finds this excessively high, using the analogy of Nvidia being worth $24 trillion with similar math. He notes that even Morningstar values SpaceX at less than half the asking price. Brian's strategy is to avoid buying SpaceX on day one due to this inflated price. He plans to wait until December, after the typical six-month lockup period expires for pre-IPO investors, anticipating that a flood of shares hitting the open market could create a more favorable entry point.

**Telescope Innovations (TELF):** Brian highlights Telescope Innovations as a promising company bringing AI and automation to science, akin to SpaceX's disruption in aerospace. He points to its recent deployment of a third self-driving lab to a major European customer, emphasizing it as their first international deployment with no meaningful competition. Brian previously mentioned the stock in January, noting it has since doubled. He praises its ability to dramatically cut drug pipeline costs from $900 million to $300 million and extend patent revenue windows by enabling faster market entry with its 24/7 lab operations. The company also boasts an advisory board member, Dr. Barry Sharpless (two-time Nobel laureate), and a management team with a strong track record of successful exits totaling over $1.7 billion. Brian recommends viewers to conduct their own research into TELF.

Mentioned Stocks

SPACEX

Sentiment: SELLAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Brian considers the $1.75 trillion valuation for SpaceX extremely high, at 95 times its under $19 billion revenue, and notes that even Morningstar values it at less than half this amount. He advises against buying on day one due to this inflated price. Instead, he recommends waiting until December, after the six-month lockup period for pre-IPO investors expires, anticipating that a potential surge of shares on the market could create a more favorable entry point.

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TELF

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Brian highlights Telescope Innovations (TELF) as a promising company bringing AI and automation to science, having recently deployed its third self-driving lab internationally. He notes the stock has doubled since his last mention in January. He praises its potential to significantly cut drug development costs from $900 million to $300 million and extend patent revenue windows through 24/7 lab operations. The company also features a Nobel laureate on its advisory board and a management team with a strong track record of successful exits.

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