Down 86%, Is The Trade Desk Stock a Generational Buying Opportunity? | TTD Stock Analysis
Summary
Parkev's main thesis is that the market has excessively punished The Trade Desk's stock price due to fears of rising competition from Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. While he acknowledges that revenue growth is slowing from historical highs of 20-30% down to a projected 10% annually, he believes the 80-90% collapse in valuation is an overreaction. He highlights the company's successful cost-cutting measures which led to operating margins tripling from 2022 to 2025.
Parkev provides a detailed financial outlook, forecasting free cash flow to grow moderately from $830 million in 2026 to over $1 billion by 2028. He uses a conservative long-term growth rate of only 3% beyond 2035 to ensure a margin of safety. Despite these pessimistic assumptions, his model suggests the company is worth significantly more than its current trading price.
Mentioned Stocks
Reasoning: Parkev explicitly mentions buying rounds of the stock as it dropped, including his most recent purchases at a price of just over $19 per share. He believes the stock is significantly undervalued with an intrinsic value of $49, compared to the current price of $19. He identifies anything below $45 as an attractive entry point. His bullish stance is supported by a 90% collapse in the forward P/E ratio (from 78 to 10) and a significant turnaround in profit margins.