AMD Is Up 20% After Earnings. Here's What I'm Doing Next

Couch Investor•May 6, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor provides an analysis of the current market state, emphasizing that the rapid vertical movement in AI-related stocks has created a 'toppy' environment. He warns that investors entering the market now out of Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) risk becoming 'exit liquidity' for those who bought at lower prices. While he remains fundamentally bullish on the growth of AI infrastructure, he suggests that the speed of the recent rally warrants a period of cooling off or consolidation. He specifically reviews the earnings reports of three major companies, providing both fundamental data and valuation perspectives.

AMD: The company reported strong data center growth and guided for $11.2 billion in revenue, exceeding analyst expectations of $10.5 billion. Couch Investor highlights the $100 billion annual revenue potential for the data center segment and a long-term EPS target of over $20 in the next 3 to 5 years. Based on his DCF analysis, the base case valuation is $467 and the bull case is $856, but he notes that reaching the $430 level so quickly makes him hesitant to buy more at current prices.

Uber: Uber delivered a strong quarter with EBITDA guidance of $2.7 to $2.8 billion, which is higher than the $2.68 billion analysts expected. The company is successfully scaling its Uber One membership to 50 million members and focusing on a capital-efficient approach to autonomous vehicles by building the network rather than the cars. Couch Investor believes the stock has been underappreciated for a long time and expects it to start moving upward as execution remains consistent.

Oscar Health: The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $18.7 to $19 billion and showed significant improvements in its medical loss ratio (MLR), which dropped to 70.5% in Q2. Despite a slight revenue miss, Couch Investor views the quarter as very strong, noting that the market cap remains low at approximately $6 billion relative to its massive revenue target. He expects the market to eventually assign a higher valuation multiple to the stock as it turns a profit.

Mentioned Stocks

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: While he is a holder of Micron, Couch Investor notes the stock has gone up a significant amount. He mentions that even though it has a low P/E, he might take profits to rotate into cheaper names like SoFi or Mercado Libre because the sector feels 'toppy'.

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AMD

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Couch Investor acknowledges the strong earnings, a $100B annual data center revenue target, and a long-term EPS target of over $20. However, because the stock has doubled recently and hit his DCF base case of $467 very quickly, he explicitly states he would not be buying today if he didn't already have a position.

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OSCR

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor highlights the significant improvement in Medical Loss Ratio (70.5%) and reaffirmed $19B revenue guidance. He argues the stock is undervalued at a $6B market cap and that the market will likely assign it a higher multiple soon.

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UBER

Sentiment: BUYAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor is impressed by Uber's ability to scale earnings at twice the rate of revenue. He views the EBITDA guidance beat and the growth in Uber One memberships as signs of continued dominance and expects the stock price to start moving up.

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