The Stocks Everyone Was Panicking About Just Bounced. Here's What's Next

Couch Investor•May 7, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor provides an analysis of the current AI and semiconductor market, noting a minor pullback after an extended period of extreme growth. He highlights the recent deal between SpaceX’s xAI and Anthropic, which secures massive compute capacity (220,000 Nvidia GPUs), as evidence of the insatiable demand for AI infrastructure. However, he warns that the market is beginning to feel 'toppy,' particularly with memory players like SanDisk/Western Digital and Micron seeing astronomical gains. He emphasizes that while the memory business is historically cyclical, the current cycle is different due to the non-commodity nature of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

The video also touches on the difficulty of selling decisions compared to buying. Couch Investor shares his personal strategy of taking profits on high-flyers to reallocate capital into steadier businesses or cash, rather than risking being 'exit liquidity' for others. He specifically reviews the recent earnings of Shift4 and ARM, contrasting their valuations and growth prospects. He notes that while some sectors like software and financials have lagged, they may offer better value than overextended semiconductor names.

Micron (MU): Couch Investor highlights that HBM demand changes the cyclical nature of the business, as only three major players can provide the necessary technology for GPU clusters. He personally holds a position with a $90 average and has previously taken profits at $400, but is now considering selling out completely as the market feels overextended. He believes the current cycle will last longer and go higher, but warns against new entries at these elevated levels.

Shift4 (FOUR): This company reported a 'better than feared' quarter with gross revenue up 32% and a significant 49% increase in gross revenue less network fees. Couch Investor views the valuation as attractive given its $3.7 billion market cap and successful expansion into international markets and sports/entertainment venues. He maintains a hold rating, wanting to see further normalization of travel and continued successful integration of Global Blue.

ARM Holdings (ARM): Despite an excellent quarter with 20% revenue growth and strong demand for its AGI CPU (exceeding $2 billion for FY27/28), Couch Investor finds the valuation difficult to justify. He points out that the company is trading at a massive premium with a $226 billion market cap against roughly $5 billion in revenue. He advises against chasing the stock at current prices, as the ~21% growth rate does not support the extreme premium in his view.

Mentioned Stocks

Sentiment: HOLD

Reasoning: Couch Investor owns the stock with a $90 cost basis and acknowledges the strong fundamental shift caused by HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). However, he is cautious as the stock has rallied significantly and he is 'thinking about taking more profits' or selling out completely because the sector feels 'toppy.' He previously took profits at $400.

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ARM

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Couch Investor warns against buying ARM at current levels, describing the valuation as not making much sense. Despite good quarterly results, he argues that a $226 billion market cap for $5 billion in revenue and a ~21% forward growth rate represents an excessive premium that he is unwilling to pay.

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FOUR

Sentiment: HOLDAction: RECOMMENDED

Reasoning: Couch Investor maintains a hold rating on Shift4, noting that the Q1 results were better than feared with 32% gross revenue growth. He believes the company is not expensive and has significant opportunities in international scaling and cross-selling, but he wants to see more progress before changing his rating. He explicitly stated he has put it on a 'hold rating'.

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