Stock Market History Is About To Be Made (Get Ready)

Ticker Symbol: YOU•Jun 7, 2026

Summary

Alex presents a critical thesis regarding the SpaceX IPO, characterizing it as a 'trap' for the investing public. He explains that SpaceX has filed for its IPO under a computer programming industry code rather than aerospace to capture the high valuation multiples associated with AI. According to Alex, 93% of the company's total addressable market is now focused on AI, primarily through the acquisition of XAI and its product Grock, which he claims was a move to shift losses from Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition onto SpaceX's balance sheet.

The market outlook provided by Alex is bleak for new SpaceX investors, as he highlights the company's 94-times-revenue valuation, which is significantly higher than established tech giants like Nvidia or Palantir. He expresses concern over the corporate governance structure, noting Musk’s 85% voting control and the lack of legal obligation for the board to bring business opportunities to SpaceX. Furthermore, Alex points out that changes to NASDAQ's listing rules, such as the fast-entry rule and the elimination of the 10% minimum free float, will force index funds to purchase the stock at inflated prices shortly after the IPO, providing liquidity for insiders to sell.

Specific stocks and entities discussed include:

SpaceX: Alex highlights the company's massive $1.75 trillion valuation and its IPO price of $135 per share, which he deems unjustifiable given its $657 million operating loss in the rocket business. He explains that while Starlink is a profitable 'crown jewel,' it cannot be bought separately, forcing investors to take on the risks of the failing XAI segment. He concludes that the company's growth is being outpaced by its valuation and its heavy spending on inefficient data centers.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): Alex criticizes the index for changing its rules to allow 'fast entry' for massive IPOs like SpaceX, which he believes bypasses essential protections against volatility. He argues that these changes essentially force passive investors to buy into overpriced stocks with no track record. Because of this perceived compromise in index integrity, he is exiting his position in the index.

VGT (Vanguard Information Technology ETF): Alex positions this ETF as a safer and more efficient alternative to the NASDAQ 100 for technology exposure. He notes that VGT has lower management fees and consistently outperforms the QQQ index while avoiding the inclusion of SpaceX. He explicitly mentions that he is shifting his capital into this fund to protect his portfolio from the risks he associates with the SpaceX IPO.

Mentioned Stocks

SPACEX

Sentiment: SELL

Reasoning: Alex is avoiding the IPO due to what he describes as an insane valuation of 94 times revenue, a lack of transparency in its AI-focused business model, and massive governance red flags where Elon Musk maintains total control. He mentions the IPO price is expected to be $135 per share, valuing the company at $1.75 trillion, which he believes is a valuation driven by hype rather than the fundamentals of the underlying rocket or Starlink businesses.

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QQQ

Sentiment: SELLAction: SOLD

Reasoning: Alex is selling his shares in the NASDAQ 100 because the index changed its rules to allow SpaceX to enter quickly despite a low free float. He argues this forces index investors to buy into a volatile and potentially overpriced stock, compromising the integrity of the index as a passive investment tool.

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VGT

Sentiment: BUYAction: BOUGHT

Reasoning: Alex is buying VGT as a replacement for his NASDAQ 100 position, noting its history of outperforming the QQQ, lower fees, and the fact that its underlying index will not include SpaceX, thus avoiding the risks he perceives with that IPO.

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