I'm Thinking About Taking Some Profits. Here's Why.

Couch Investor•May 11, 2026

Summary

Couch Investor argues that the current market environment is characterized by extreme greed and headline-driven volatility, necessitating a disciplined approach to portfolio management. Despite his portfolio significantly outperforming the S&P 500 with a 23.4% YTD return, he suggests that investors should consider taking partial profits (approximately 5%) on high-flying winners to build cash reserves. He emphasizes a busy upcoming earnings week with key reports from companies like Nio, Nu Holdings, and Cisco, which could trigger significant market movements. His core strategy involves maintaining exposure to high-conviction AI and fintech plays while reallocating capital from overextended names into misunderstood or underperforming quality businesses.

**Nebius (NBIS):** Couch Investor views this as a one-of-a-kind AI-specialized cloud player that could become the next hyperscaler. He highlights the company's deep connections with Nvidia and its transition from Yandex as a major competitive advantage in terms of talent and infrastructure. He predicts the company will eventually reach a market cap exceeding $100 billion and expects upcoming quarterly revenue to potentially hit $400 million.

**Rocket Lab (RKLB):** The stock has seen massive growth, recently trading above $105 per share, leading Couch Investor to suggest taking 5% profits to secure gains. While he remains positive about the company's long-term future and increasing backlog, he warns that market sentiment is becoming extremely greedy. He plans to use the proceeds to increase his cash position for future dips.

**Micron (MU):** This stock is identified as an overperformer, though Couch Investor notes that the market remains hesitant to grant it a high multiple due to its historically cyclical nature. He points out that while AI and HBM demand are strong, analysts are currently modeling a revenue decline for 2029. He considers taking some profits here as well, noting that it remains one of the cheaper names despite its massive run with a forward P/E of 10.8.

**Google (GOOGL):** Couch Investor maintains a very bullish stance on Alphabet, citing a huge disconnect between the company's intrinsic value and its market price. He predicts the stock could eventually reach $400 per share, making it a core holding that has already delivered substantial returns. Even with its large size, he believes it still offers significant upside compared to more volatile names.

**Nu Holdings (NU):** As the company prepares to report earnings, Couch Investor expects a potential market overreaction if the company signals increased long-term investment. He views such a pullback as a buying opportunity, as he believes the market often punishes companies that invest for the future. He specifically identifies any price point under $13 as an ideal entry point for adding more shares.